WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Look to Spend on Brooks Koepka
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Look to Spend on Brooks Koepka
As my colleague here at Oddschecker, Rick Gehman, so eloquently put it, it's the single biggest edge week for those who build optimally. Last year only 3 out of 5 entries across all contests were structured optimally in a way that gave all six of their players that opportunity to reach the elite 8. Before the stat models and ownership projections, you have to start with creating the optimal lineup to give yourself a massive leverage advantage on the rest of the DFS Field.
We've gone West and made our way to Austin Country Club in Texas. The relatively short Pete Dye design is a nearly perfect Match Play style golf course, with risk/reward on nearly every hole down the stretch. It's visually stunning and several fairways have speed slots and slopes that if played properly can carefully navigate the golf ball to prime positions. I am firmly in the camp that your Match Play history DOES matter. It's a very different style of golf and sport to play against another player versus simply playing against the course. It's not the easiest thing to quantify with many players, but there are certainly a few who we have seen historically thrive and others struggle in this type of format.
In terms of key stats that I am factoring into the equation, I would recommend valuing SG: Off The Tee, more than some others may recommend. There is just something to hitting it further and straighter on the opening shot of a hole in Match Play, most notable that you likely get to see the other player make their approach shot before playing yours. Whether they hit it close or end up in the hazard, it's good info to have. You of course have to factor in putting in this format, first in the hole usually wins. Lastly, I am going to look at birdie or better rates, the scoring in DFS is MUCH different this week, and winning a hole is where you make your money so you need a player who makes an abundance of birdies.
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WGC Match Play Championship DFS Picks
$10k+ Range: Dustin Johnson $10,000
I ranked all groupings in terms of who I believe has the path of least resistance for the 10k+ Players, and DJ has the second easiest path outside of Rahm. I'll gladly take the $1,300 savings to roll DJ on his 3rd consecutive event with hopes he has found a groove. He's been great in Match Play throughout his career which includes a win here in 2017. He also ranks #1 in SG: Putting on Pete Dye Courses and we all know you win matches with your putter.
$9k Range: Brooks Koepka $9,400
My opinion is that Brooks and DJ are both in the overall easiest quadrant and since they ultimately wouldn't meet until the elite 8, you can still build optimally starting with these 2. I think he's going to win this thing. All the motivation aside, he's been hitting it really well in 3.5 of his last 5 tournaments. It was nice to finally see some putts drop on Sunday which hopefully took the lid off for Koepka. This should be the perfect format for his mentality which thrives on head to head competition.
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$8k Range: Joaquin Niemann $8,600
Niemann possesses a ton of value this week as a player who will hunt for birdies and comes into this event with solid form. He rated out really well in my stat model in terms of GIR and Birdies or Better rates, but he's also sneaky long with his Driver ranking 4th overall in Driving Distance. I know he will play aggressively and being that he is likely longer than his opponent, he will be afforded the opportunity to play 2nd into many holes locations which he can use to his advantage.
$7k Range: Brian Harman $7,600
Steady and consistent. He played fantastic last week finishing T5 at the Valspar with four consecutive rounds on 68 or better. His record is 5-3-1 overall at this event and I think he's playing with the type of confidence that we could see leading him to advance far in the bracket. He ranks 4th in SG: Total on Pete Dye courses over his last 24 rounds played on the unique Dye-style architecture as well.
$6k Range: Tom Hoge $6,800
He's clearly in the best form of his career, and that coupled with his strong ties to Texas golf make this a pretty easy pick for me. It also gives me a player in another quadrant of the bracket as well so I have all my bases covered. On this shorter layout, he should be able to hit plenty of wedges into greens, and he's been doing that as well as anybody on Tour lately. I think he can go far this week!
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Joe Idone's PGA Tour DFS Picks
- Cuts Made: 117/140
- Winners Picked: 7