Masters Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

Masters Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

Masters week is finally here. And, in order to prepare for the first Major of the year, we're rolling out our longshot picks a day earlier than usual.

This week, Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Joe Idone, Tom Jacobs, Andy Lack and Sam Eaton give us their favorite longshot picks at The Masters.

It's important to remember that it is often the best of the best that win at Augusta. But, if you're looking for a Masters pick outside of the top-20 names, this is your best place to find one.

AND, if you're looking for a little more action, we have your completely free chance to win $250 with the OddsChecker Masters Free Pool. Just click here to sign up for our Free Masters Prop Pool and answer 15 questions about this weekend's Major at Augusta.

Looking for the best Masters betting promos available in your state? Look no further

Masters Longshot Picks

Andy Lack: Shane Lowry @ +5000 (Bet $100 to win $5,000)

Shane Lowry is a proven performer in major championships, with a runaway victory at the 2019 Open Championship, as well as a runner-up at the 2016 US Open. Lowry has had somewhat less success at the Masters, but back-to-back top-25 finishes lead to me believe that he's becoming increasingly more comfortable on these hallowed grounds. Add in the fact that he had a spectacular Florida swing and remains one of the best long iron players on Tour, and I find Lowry to be the most appealing option farther down the board.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Sam Eaton: Shane Lowry @ +5000 (Bet $100 to win $5,000)

Shane Lowry just about sneaks into the longshot category, but he’s one worth chancing at the Masters. Shane Lowry would have won the Honda if it wasn’t for the sudden door pour of rain, and his stats have been trending in the right direction since.

Lowry’s approach play has been among the best on the PGA Tour, he’s gained over 3.9 shots on the field in approach this year.  His putter has warmed up, and he’s ranking well in other aspects on the game including SG OTT and scrambling.

It was a toss-up between him and Fitzpatrick for the longshot but go with the Irishman.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Geoff Fienberg: Adam Scott @ +6000 (Bet $100 to win $6,000)

Potentially taking liberties with the term long shot but it's the Masters so anything north of 50/1 in this field is a long shot by my standards, plus I don't have outright bet deeper than my Adam Scott Masters future. Scott comes into the Masters in quality form on course that's been kind to the 2013 champion who also sports 4 top tens. His putting and around the green game have also been trending properly for Scott, which is crucial for pulling off a Masters win.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Joe Idone: Joaquin Niemann @ +6500 (Bet $100 to win $6,500)

Certainly, when hunting for a longshot to win the Masters, it's encouraging to see them fit the mold of many trends. Most notably for Niemann, his SG: Around the Green stats have been spectacular in 2022. He's been able to gain strokes in every tournament played since last November, and ranks 2nd overall for the last 24 rounds played. He's worked hard to pick up some distance over the last 2 years which is of course another plus annually at Augusta National, maybe more so this year given the amount of rainfall in the area over the last 5-6 weeks. Lastly, he fits the trend of notching a victory coming into the Masters where he of course won The Genesis Invitational held at Riviera CC which holds many legitimate similarities to Augusta National. 

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

Rick Gehman: Joaquin Niemann @ +6500 (Bet $100 to win $6,500)

There's a case to be made that the three best course comps for Augusta National are Kapalua, Riviera and Muirfield Village. In 30 rounds on those courses, Niemann is gaining 1.13 strokes per round including a T6 at Muirfield Village, a T5 at Kapalua and a win at Riviera. Now making his third trip to Augusta National, we could see the leap from Niemann.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Tom Jacobs: Paul Casey @ +8000 (Bet $100 to win $8,000)

There is obviously an element of risk with Paul Casey this week, in terms of health, as the veteran Englishman had dealt with back spasms at the Match Play, cutting short his match with Corey Conners and keeping him from playing Alex Noren and Louis Oosthuizen altogether. 

I have taken the approach that he missed those matches to ensure that the spasms didn’t develop into anything more sinister and that he should be raring to go, for what will be his 16th Masters Appearance.

Casey finished T6 here on his debut way back in 2004, and after missing the cut the following year he bounced back with T10, T11 and T20 finishes from 2007-2009.

He had another lean period from 2010-2012 and didn’t play in 2013 or 2014, but then went on another fine run, with finishes of T6, T4, 6th and T15 from 2015-2018. He’s been in average form here over the past three visits (MC-T38-T26) but I fully expect Casey to deliver another top finish here, should he be fit.

He finished 3rd at the PLAYERS where one of the unluckiest breaks you’ll see prevented a better finish, and he was also T12 in Dubai and T15 at Riviera, with the latter a good pointer for this.

Casey has made his last 10-straight major cuts including 2nd at the PGA Championship, where Morikawa shot a 64 to take his chance away, a T4 a year later in the same event, a T7 in the 2021 U.S. Open and a T15 in the most recent major, the Open Championship.

This Masters might just be his best chance of a major victory, a title his career probably deserves and he draws a lot of parallels to Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia before him. With five top-10s and 11 made cuts in 15 appearances here, he’s always been solid and it remains to be seen what he can do to get over the hurdle and win here, but I think he can manage it, as he continues to play some of the best golf of his career.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)