RBC Heritage Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Collin Morikawa Offers Great Value at the Top
RBC Heritage Daily Fantasy Picks and Predictions: Collin Morikawa Offers Great Value at the Top
Well, we predictably followed up the best week of DFS Picks at the Valero Texas Open with a total dud at The Masters. Hand up, I think I ended up overthinking things quite a bit and ignored many of the obvious signs of recent form staring us right in the face. The beauty is, that we don't have to wait long to rebound! After the first Major of the season, the PGA Tour pulls into Hilton Head for the annual RBC Heritage held at familiar Harbour Town Golf Links.
Similar to last week, the ends up being one of the more predictive events year after year in terms of course history. Familiarity and strategy is always important, but even more so on the short, but tricky Pete Dye design. While only a hair over 7,100 yards, many of the holes require less than Driver off the tee and become positional tests from common landing areas. The greens are the smallest on Tour, which makes attacking from a proper position of the utmost importance. I'll also put a heavier emphasis on GIR percentages this week, if a player is not strong in recent GIR than they definitely need a tidy short game to accompany it.
Some other stats that I will be factoring into my stat model are Good Drives Gained, bogey avoidance, and opportunities gained. I want to see players who are giving themselves good looks, both on the fairway and on the greens themselves. Lastly, in terms of key proximity ranges, I have honed in on 175-200 yards as it appears we will see significantly more approach shots from this distance vs. tour average. Here are my favorite picks in each price range for this week's RBC Heritage.
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$10k+ Range: Collin Morikawa $10,200
It's not often you see the co-favorite to win as the cheap option in the 10k range. For me, it came down to picking between Collin and Cam Smith. Cam is in the better form recently and is a much better putter. However, Collin I think has more top-end talent and can hopefully carry some more momentum from another Major top 5. Happy to take the slight discount here and upside of Morikawa on a course that would appear on paper to highlight his strength of being an elite iron player.
$9k+ Range: Matt Fitzpatrick $9,500
The old' "This is my favorite course on Tour" narrative has me feeling nostalgic. Happy to jump aboard it with Fitz being in quite solid form incoming this week. He's seen a recent uptick in his OTT numbers and we know he's a great technical player that should set up well (4th place last year). Lastly, he's been great at avoiding bogeys, number 1 on Tour in my model, to go along with a consistent putter. Is this the week we see him finally breakthrough with his first PGA Tour victory?
$8k+ Range: Alex Noren $8,300
This $8,000 price range is filled with a number of compelling names, but none rated out as well in my stat model as Alex Noren. He ranks near the top in recent SG: Approach, bogey avoidance, and SG: Total at this course. He had a fantastic run through Florida finishing 5th at the Honda Classic and 12th at the Valspar. The irons have been great gaining strokes on the field in 6 of his last 7 starts, if he can continue that again this week it should set him up to contend.
$7k+ Range: Adam Hadwin $7,600
I know the picks have been quite chalky thus far, but I'm simply not going to ignore a solid price on a guy that is playing great golf. Hadwin has been a top 5 player in the field in recent Approach-play and opportunities gained on the field. He closed The PLAYERS with the strongest round of the day and backed that up with strong top 10 placings at both the Valspar and Valero. He's a streaky putter who can go low on any given day which gives you a ton of potential upside in the mid $7k range.
$6k+ Range: Matt NeSmith $6,600
New range, same story. The guy has shown flashes of great golf recently. I love the Valspar as a good comp course that is played only a few weeks before this event where NeSmith finished 3rd and played in the final pairing on Sunday. The iron play tends to come and go, but when he's on, he's been having really good peak finishes. I think a shorter, bermudagrass, technical golf course is the ideal setup for his game and a newly minted positive outlook and attitude will hopefully serve him well this week. Worth the shot!
Joe Idone's PGA Tour DFS Picks
- Cuts Made: 125/150
- Winners Picked: 8