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Mexico Open longshot picks and predictions for this week's stop on the PGA Tour. All six of OddsChecker's golf handicappers and experts join up to give us their favorite longhsot picks for this weekend.

Mexico Open Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

The Mexico Open makes its debut on the PGA Tour tomorrow and we have our stable of golf handicappers looking for longshot winners to make this a profitable weekend. Who should you be backing? Before you finish your card, make sure you read on.

Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Joe Idone, Andy Lack, Tom Jacobs and Sam Eaton all give us their Mexico Open longshot picks, and we have a few that have their eyes on Canadian Autin Smotherman. Who else should you be backing as a lonshot? Find out here.

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Mexico Open Longshot Picks

Sam Eaton: Matt Jones @ +5500 (Bet $100 to win $5,500)

There’s no course history to go on for the Mexico Open, but reports suggest it will play pretty long, with par 3’s being testing, with approach and around the green play likely to make the difference come Sunday.

Matt Jones' par-three record is a concern, however, he looks over-priced given this field. His play around the green has always been one of his strong points, but he’s gained on average 2.1 shots in the last five events.

Takeaway The Players and his irons have been firing. His putter was very hot when finishing 3rd at the Sentry, and finishing 2nd at Valero. If you are looking for a real long-shot, take a punt on Scott Gutschewski at +370000.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Andy Lack: Aaron Rai @ +7000 (Bet $100 to win $8,000)

The Englishman is remarkably one of the few players at his price point with a legitimate winning pedigree. Both of his DP World Tour wins came in comparable strength of his fields, and his transition to the PGA Tour has been seamless as well. a 15th at Mayakoba shows his comfortability on Paspalum, and a sixth at Torrey Pines displays a player who can compete on longer golf courses. Coming off a 4th at the Zurich Classic, expect Rai to be in the mix once again.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Joe Idone: Sahith Theegale @ +8000 (Bet $100 to win $8,000)

Draftkings still has a great number on Theegala this week playing on a course that should suit his strengths as a rising talent on the PGA Tour. He has recorded his best results on "Driver-heavy" golf courses where he can be aggressive off the tee without too much risk. The resort-friendliness of Vidanta Vallarta should allow him to utilize his best assets as a player. He's also been really solid on long par 4's, and this course features six par 4 holes that measure 450+ yards, two of which have transitioned from par 5's for this event. Given the field strength, I believe this presents a great opportunity for Sahith to nab his first PGA Tour victory. 

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

Geoff Fienberg: Austin Smotherman @ +12500 (Bet $100 to win $12,500)

I'm backing a rookie in the Canadian Austin Smotherman this week, Austin hits it plenty long enough and has been peaking with his approach play at the moment. Having gained strokes in both driving and approach in four of his last 5 starts.

The pick is about his current form, but it is nice to see he won a 2018 PGALA event in Mexico.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Rick Gehman: Austin Smotherman @ +12500 (Bet $100 to win $12,500)

Smotherman has impressed in his first year with a PGA TOUR card and is proving to be an accomplished ball-striker. He won this event in 2018 when it was on the PGA TOUR Latinoamerica and he's won multiple times on the Korn Ferry Tour since. His game is growing and he might be poised to nab his first victory on the big circuit.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Tom Jacobs: Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ +20000 (Bet $100 to win $20,000)

Kiradech Aphibarnrat has two top-5s in Mexico, at the WGC and he's in pretty good form of late, having made his last three cuts on Tour. Two of those have come in Puerto Rico and Corales, which come to mind when thinking about this event.

He won in Thailand at the back end of last year, and should have won at Wentworth, in the flagship event on the DP World Tour as well, so there's some form to suggest he can win in this level of field.

Take the likes of Rahm, Ancer and Finau out, and there's not a lot to beat, and even the latter two in that group have question marks, so there's every reason to fire up an outsider here!

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Article Authors


Known for his vast knowledge and entertaining approach to talking golf, has a documented record picking outright winners on the award winning podcast "The Pat Mayo Experience".


Founder of RickRunGood.com and Golf Host on CBS Sports.


Joe Idone is Golf Betting & DFS enthusiast from South Florida. He has spent the last 12 years focused primarily on PGA Tour analysis and isolating profitable golf wagers. In 2020, he profited over $130,000 in DFS Golf and has a longstanding documented history of hitting outright winners.


Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York. Andy came to OddsChecker in January 2022 after previously writing for Golf Digest, GolfWRX, Rotoballer, and the Score. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. In his free time, Andy is still grinding away at his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur, and if not writing, can likely be found somewhere on a golf course.


Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!


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