AT&T Byron Nelson Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

AT&T Byron Nelson Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

We're just one week away from the PGA Championship, golf's second Major championship of the year, at Southern Hills. So, what better what to go into a Major week than by padding your bankroll with a winner from our Byron Nelson longshot picks.

Geoff Fienberg, Joe Idone, Rick Gehman, Sam Eaton and Tom Jacobs all break down their favorite Byron Nelson longshot picks and why those golfers have caught their eye heading into this weekend.

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AT&T Byron Nelson Longshot Picks

Sam Eaton: Sebastian Munoz @+7500 (Bet $100 to win $7,500)

Long irons are the key to success at TPC Craig Ranch. This week's PGA Tour model will be based with that in mind, plus a mixture of Par-5 scoring, Shots Gained Off The Tee and Shots Gained T2G.

Sebastian Munoz gets the nod just ahead of Keith Mitchell this week. Munoz opened with 66-68 at this event last season, but a poor Saturday meant a low finish. That finish came off two missed cuts in a row, but his game is in a lot better shape this season.

He’s not finished outside the top 40 since The Amex. He’s gained on average 2.8 shots off the tee in these last five events, and 1.6 shots in approach. He’s 10th in this field in terms of shots gained Prox: 200+ in the previous three months.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Rick Gehman: Kurt Kitayama @ +1000 (Bet $100 to win $10,000)

Clearly, Kitayama is coming into his own on the PGA TOUR. He has consecutive Top 20 finishes and gained over 10 (!!) strokes from tee-to-green last week. That's the best total of his career -- he's looking confident and well prepared to continue this great run.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Joe Idone: Dylan Frittelli @ +12500 (Bet $100 to win $12,500)

The Texas Longhorn has found quite a comfort zone playing in Texas, 2 of his best 3 starts of the season have come in San Antonio and Houston. He’s packed some extra yards into the driver which should prove advantageous in getting around TPC Craig Ranch. Lastly, I believe a decent course comp to Craig Ranch is TPC Deere Run, which of course is where Dylan broke through for his first PGA Tour Victory. Hook 'em!

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Thomas Jacobs: JJ Spaun @ +12500 (Bet $100 to win $12,500)

I think we are all too ready to write off JJ Spaun as a one-week-wonder after his win at the Valero Texas Open, but his form at the start of his PGA Tour career gives reason for optimism.

Spaun first reached the PGA Tour in 2017, after winning on the then, Web.com Tour, which also came a year after breaking the single-season earnings record on the Mackenzie Tour.

Back to their first year on the PGA Tour then in 2017, and Spaun finished 9th at Torrey Pines and then 4th a start later in Phoenix. His last three starts of the calendar year saw him finish 10th at the Shriners, 14th at the Mayakoba and 2nd at the RSM, his best finish yet. Why is this relevant? Well, I want to put on record just how good JJ Spaun was in his first year as a PGA Tour player.

2018 continued in a similar fashion, with three T3 finishes, including in this event, albeit at a different course. He also posted three more top-15’s in addition to a T26 finish in Texas, at the Valero, which highlights his comfortability playing in Texas.

After that, his form was patchy until he finished 2nd last year on the Korn Ferry Tour and then got off to a good start to this PGA Tour season, with 9 top-35 finishes before his win down the road at the Valero Texas Open.

So he's clearly capable of playing in Texas, having won there already, and having a 3rd in this event in the past as well. Even when finishing 47th here last year he co-led with Spieth on day one with a T3 finish.

Two starts ago, he finished T23 on his Masters debut, and all of this is a long way of saying that JJ Spaun is hugely talented and we may just have downplayed that due to his “blip” in 2019 and 2020.

It has now come to light that he was misdiagnosed with Type-2 diabetes when he actually has Type 1 which was causing weight loss among other problems, which when you can't work out what is wrong, will always be debilitating to your golf game.

Now he has the right information, and a renewed confidence after his breakthrough victory at the Valero, and his Masters performance, I think he is much better suited to capitalize on a fast start, should he repeat what he did here 12 months ago, an open with something like a 63 again. -- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Geoff Fienberg: Luke List @ +13000 (Bet $100 to win $13,000)

Using the OddsChecker grid, we see List available at DraftKings at 130/1 but comes in as low as 80/1, you better believe I'm going right back to List this week at that price. List was in great position last week after 36 holes but a terrible Saturday set him back, but we arrive at Craig Ranch this week, a course in which I've got a much larger premium on driving distance and approach play over putting, so that's green light List, the books have no respect for List and I'm hoping to make em pay

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)