PGA Championship Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

PGA Championship longshot predictions and picks for this week. Our team of golf handicappers gets together to give us their favorite longshot picks for this Major tournament on the PGA Tour.
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PGA Championship Expert Picks: Our Staff's Top Longshot Picks

The next PGA Tour major championship is almost here, and that means so are our PGA Championship longshot picks from our team of golf handicappers.

Each week, the OC team of golf experts gives us their favorite longshot for the upcoming PGA Tour event. This week, we have the PGA Championship, taking place at Southern Hills in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Our golf handicappers Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Tom Jacobs, Sam Eaton, and Joe Idone all break down their favorite longshot for this week and tell us why they'll be backing them to win the second major on the schedule in 2022!

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PGA Championship Longshot Picks

Geoff Fienberg: Tommy Fleetwood (+11000) (Bet $100 to Win $11,000)

I'm unable to resist the 110/1 on Tommy Fleetwood that's available at DraftKings. It's felt like a slow return to form for Tommy but it appears we may finally be here, after giving himself no chance for most of the last year plus due to horrible off the tee play, the driver has been returning for Fleetwood which has allowed the rest of his game to find some of its previous magic. The game is trending at the perfect time on a course that could be an ultimate Fleetwood fit as many Shinnecock comps to Southern Hills this week

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Tom Jacobs: Cameron Champ (+15000) (Bet $100 to Win $15,000)

The chances of a longshot winning this week look rather slim, and I have gone too heavy with my selections (three sub-40/1), but I did have one longer play I was interested in.

Cameron Champ has found some form of late, as he looks to have seemingly got over a wrist issue, and as we talk about Augusta as a potential comp course, why not take the guy that's finished 19th, 26th, and 10th there in his first three starts? Champ has played in three PGA Championships and finished T54, T10, and MC in his first three efforts and it is that 10th along with his Masters form and current form that suggests to me he could go well here.

Champ often loses strokes on approach, almost always actually mainly due to his long-hitting demanding much better irons and wedges to actually gain on the field, but last week he gained all four days on approach, ranking 12th in Round 4. He also ranked 4th on Sunday in SG Tee to Green, so it looks like the man who's finished 10th, 6th, and 38th in his last three starts might be ready to win again. Will it be at this level? That is hard to tell, but despite his volatility, he's already a three-time winner on Tour since joining in 2018, so he can get it done on Sundays when given a chance.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

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Sam Eaton: Cameron Young (+8000) (Bet $100 to Win $8000)

Sebastian Munoz became my second near-miss in the longshot column after Shane Lowry recorded a second-place earlier in the year. Obviously, we still have the 90/1 Luke List winner to fall back on.

I was tempted to play Gary Woodland at +12500 in the PGA Championship longshot picks this week, as that price is far too big. However, all the key stats point to Cameron Young. Young actually rates out second in my model over the last three months, only behind Joran Spieth. Young’s inexperience is obviously detrimental, but you can’t ignore his recent form. 

Here are some of the key stats (in the last three months) that led me to Cameron Young:

  • 20th SG Approach
  • 2nd P4: 400-450 scoring
  • 3rd Driving Distance
  • 9th Prox: 200+
  • 2nd SG: Ball Striking
  • 7th: SG Around the Green
  • 5th: Scrambling

As you would expect with numbers like that, his form has been pretty solid. He finished 3rd at RBC Heritage and 2nd at Wells Fargo. His putter has been cold of late, but he’s shown at the Genesis and Sanderson Farms it can get very hot.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Rick Gehman: Jason Day (+10000) (Bet $100 to Win $10,000)

Outside of two rounds in his last three starts, Day has been awesome. He's showing tangible gains across the board and seems to be confident in his game right now. Even when Day was struggling in recent years, he found a way to play well at the PGA Championship. He has (4) Top 25 finishes in his last five trips.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Joe Idone: Tom Hoge (+20000) (Bet $100 to Win $20,000)

I think Hoge makes an interesting value selection under the assumption most will write him off due to his lack of distance off the tee. That said, there are numerous shorter par 4s where he can really leverage his terrific wedge play and I think both par 5's could likely be 3 shot holes for the majority of the field. Hoge ranks 9th in SG: Approach and 8th in SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds played. He was able to finish top 20 last week at the Byron Nelson and of course, was able to break through for victory earlier this season at Pebble Beach, which shares the nostalgia on tiny, demanding greens much like Southern Hills does. Given the expected super windy conditions, I think there is a lane where that becomes advantageous for shorter, more accurate players and Hoge certainly fits the mold for me at a whopping 200/1!

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

ROI 34%
GolfNFL
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Known for his vast knowledge and entertaining approach to talking golf, has a documented record picking outright winners on the award winning podcast "The Pat Mayo Experience".

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Founder of RickRunGood.com and Golf Host on CBS Sports.

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Joe Idone is Golf Betting & DFS enthusiast from South Florida. He has spent the last 12 years focused primarily on PGA Tour analysis and isolating profitable golf wagers. In 2020, he profited over $130,000 in DFS Golf and has a longstanding documented history of hitting outright winners.

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Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on the tours on both sides of the pond. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season! His main passion remains golf however, and every year he holds onto the hope of Lee Westwood winning his first major championship.

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