Memorial Tournament Picks and Preview: Should You Back Matthew Fitzpatrick?

Memorial Tournament Picks and Preview: Should You Back Matthew Fitzpatrick?

It was a second straight week of dramatics on Tour, as Sam Burns was the victor this time following a playoff to win the Charles Schwab Challenge on Sunday. Following three straight weeks in the heartland, we now swing north to Ohio for the Memorial, followed by a week in Canada ahead of the season's third Major (US Open). 

One of the most popular non-Major events on the Tour’s calendar, Jack Nicklaus plays host to the Memorial each year, as the fields are consistently stacked as players pay homage to the GOAT. Let’s look at the course itself, the field, and one guy I have my eye on this week as the first tee approaches. 

Past Winners of Memorial Tournament

• 2021: Patrick Cantlay
• 2020: Jon Rahm
• 2019: Patrick Cantlay

Course Preview: Muirfield Village Golf Club

Designed by Nicklaus himself outside of his hometown in Dublin, OH, Muirfield Village comes in as a stock Par 72 and just over the Tour’s average at 7,543 yards. With smaller than average greens, that are covered in Bentgrass, players must excel in Approach to hold their landings and stay on the green. 

For the shots that end up in the rough weather on approach or off the tee, Muirfield is known to be unforgiving as it features some of the densest rough on Tour. Said to be one of the most pristine courses and overall golf facilities in the country, players and spectators alike are always in for a treat when they visit Muirfield.

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Relevant Betting Course Metrics

• SG: Approach
• Driving Accuracy
• SG: Off-the-Tee

Outright Picks 

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2500)(Bet $100 to win $2500)

With seven victories on international Tours, Matt Fitzpatrick, to me, is the best player on Tour that has yet to find the winner’s circle. With 21 career Top 10 finishes in 103 events played, Fitzpatrick continues to lurk this season with three top 5 finishes since March, including a T2 weeks ago at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Coming into this week, Fitz ranks inside the top 5 on Tour in Scoring Average (69.357), SG: Tee-to-Green (1.485), Scrambling (69.92), and #1 in SG: Total (2.157). He also ranks inside the top 10 on Tour in Par-5 scoring, a metric critical success here in the now lengthed Muirfield. 

Looking back over his success here at the challenge Muirfield, Fitzpatrick has 14 rounds played, making the cut in three of his past four appearances including a solo third place in 2020. On Sunday of that week, the conditions on Sunday were the most difficult in any major since 2015, with the scoring average on the day coming in at 78. Fitzpatrick, however, was the low score on the day and the only player to shoot in the 60s, turning in a Sunday 68, two days after shooting a Friday 66.

With his game in the best form it’s been in his entire career, look for Fitzpatrick to be in contention come Sunday afternoon, as he ramps up for his third Major this season, the first two of which he finished T14 or better.