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British Open longshot picks and predictions. The Open Championship, the fourth and final major of the season, is upon us. So, we asked our tam of golf experts for their British Open longshot picks heading into Thursday's first round.

British Open Expert Picks: Our Staff's Longshot Picks

The fourth and final major of the golf season is here. This is the last major championship golf we get for nine months, so make sure you take advantage of it. And, what better way to take advantage of major championship golf than with our British Open longshot picks?

All six of our golf experts here at OddsChecker have a different British Open longshot pick at St. Andrews this week. So, read below to see who Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Andy Lack, Joe Idone, Tom Jacobs and Sam Eaton are backing as their longshot to win The Open.

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British Open Longshot Picks

Sam Eaton: Tony Finau @ +5000 (Bet $100 to win $5,000)

I’m sure Tony Finau will be a popular British Open pick this week with his odds hitting the 50/1 bracket. Finau’s well suited to this style of golf, which he’s shown in previous British Opens finishing in the top 30 every year since 2016.

Finau’s stats are trending in the right direction. In the last three months he tops the field in shots gained around the green, 4th in Scrambling and 4th in shots gained off the tee. The big American could be handy prospect with his long-drives and in-form short game around some of these smaller par 4’s.

- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Rick Gehman: Corey Conners @ +8000 (Bet $100 to win $8,000)

Conners is one of the best tee-to-green players on TOUR, gaining strokes in (10) of his last (12) events in that category. During that stretch, he's converted (6) Top 15 finishes. St. Andrews will ask for plenty of wedge shots which is one of the strengths of Conners' game. The course set-up and lead-in form provides plenty of optimism that Conners can improve on his 15th place finish from last year.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Geoff Fienberg: Adam Scott @ +10000 (Bet $100 to win $10,000)

The Open Championship has a history of being kind to an old soul on tour, enter Adam Scott at 100/1 (as low as 65 on the OC grid) who quietly finished 14th at The US Open and has made no secrets about only caring about 6-8 events a year on the calendar. At Christmas time my veteran player of choice to give us our magic moment in 2022 was Adam Scott, I was encouraged by the efforts he has been making for one last stand against the youth flourishing in today's game. His collapse at The Open in 2012 still remains one of my worst major beats

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

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Andy Lack: Marc Leishman @ +10000 (Bet $100 to win $10,000)

In Marc Leishman’s last trip to St. Andrew’s, he came up just short of Louis Oosthuizen in a playoff at the 2015 Open Championship. While his recent form leaves something to be desired, I have reason to believe that there’s something about the Old Course fits the Australian’s eye. His statistical profile brings credence to this theory as well, as Leishman ranks Top-30 in this field in long-term proximity inside 125 yards, scrambling, putting on slower greens, and three-putt avoidance, all metrics that I believe will be absolutely crucial in crowning our champion this week. 

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Joe Idone: Patrick Reed @ +12500 (Bet $100 to win $12,500)

You don't ever count out Patrick Reed! The guy simply has a knack for showing up and manufacturing his way up a leaderboard. There were positive glimpses into a re-engineered form before exiting the PGA Tour as he posted his best finish of 2022 at the Charles Schwab just over a month ago. Between that event and the PGA Championship the week prior, he gained nearly 9 strokes on approach, totalling his best consecutive event stretch with his irons in the past year. We of course must also mention his 3rd place finish at the Portland LIV tournament, where his "Saturday" 67 was bested only by a scorching final round 65 from Branden Grace. Reed finished T3.

Also encouraging is the progress he's showcased with the Driver, whether due to an equipment change or swing adjustment, he's picked up noticeable distance and ranked 7th in Portland in terms of Driving Accuracy. I trust him on a leaderboard late on Sunday and in nearly every weather condition, Reed is my favorite longshot pick of the week! 

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

Tom Jacobs: JT Poston @ +15000 (Bet $100 to win $15,000)

Open Championship's and especially ones at St. Andrews have a knack of throwing up some surprise results.

In 2015, we had three amateurs in the top-12 and another who was the 54-hole leader and finished 30th. Two of those (Jordan Niebrugge and Ollie Schniederjans) were Americans, and this gives me a lot of confidence that Americans and those less experienced in links golf in general can compete at this layout.

Brendon Todd was also T12 that year, playing in just his second Open Championship, and I think a player in JT Poston’s form and his ability, can at least challenge for a top-5.

Poston’s last two starts read 2-1, as he finished runner-up at the Travelers and won the John Deere Classic, and if you look at his two wins being the Wyndham and the John Deere, immediately you can draw comparisons to 2015 winner, Zach Johnson. Johnson had won and dominated the places at the John Deere for years, and gone close at the Wyndham as well.

A player in Poston’s form can certainly find success here, at the Old Course and given he ranks 1st in Par 4 Scoring and 17th in Scrambling over the past three months, he fits my statistical profile as well.

It's a home-run attempt in this week’s longshot, and the other choice would have been Wyndham Clark, so if it doesn't go to one of the dozen in the betting, I could see a real surprise winner here.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Article Authors


Known for his vast knowledge and entertaining approach to talking golf, has a documented record picking outright winners on the award winning podcast "The Pat Mayo Experience".


Founder of RickRunGood.com and Golf Host on CBS Sports.


Joe Idone is Golf Betting & DFS enthusiast from South Florida. He has spent the last 12 years focused primarily on PGA Tour analysis and isolating profitable golf wagers. In 2020, he profited over $130,000 in DFS Golf and has a longstanding documented history of hitting outright winners.


Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York. Andy came to OddsChecker in January 2022 after previously writing for Golf Digest, GolfWRX, Rotoballer, and the Score. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. In his free time, Andy is still grinding away at his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur, and if not writing, can likely be found somewhere on a golf course.


Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!


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