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The PGA Tour is heading to the BMW Championship this week. Find out who our expert golf handicappers are backing this week with our staff's longshot picks for the BMW Championship.

BMW Championship Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

The PGA Tour postseason rolls on to the BMW Championship. Naturally, you're going to need to find an outright winner pick. If you're going to look for a chalk answer this isn't the place for your.

Our expert golf handicappers are here to share their favorite longshot picks. Here's some longshots that you should be keeping an eye on at the BMW Championship in Delaware this week.

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BMW Championship Longshot Picks

Sam Eaton: Cam Davis +7000 (Bet $100 to win $7000)

It's a tough week for a longshot given so many players are under 20/1, let alone 50/1. However, there's two players at big prices who rank out well in my model. One is Brendan Steele, the other is Cam Davis. Given recent form, I'm opting for Cam Davis. On a course where shots gained off the tee and approach are key, Cam Davis will always have a chance. In the last two months, he ranks 13th SG OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 7th in Ball Striking and 11th in Approach. Take a chance on the Aussie at +7000.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Rick Gehman: Cameron Davis (+6500) (Bet $100 to win $6500)

Davis has been one of the best golfers on TOUR in recent weeks but it's been easy to overlook his performances. With a T13 last week, that marks five straight Top 16 finishes. Over the last 20 rounds, Davis is gaining 1.91 strokes per round to the field -- the 8th best mark of anyone teeing it up this week. With large greens and generous fairways, it's safe to assume that Wilmington Country Club should suit Davis' game quite well.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Joe Idone: Cam Davis +7000 (Bet $100 to win $7000)

I'm going with Davis as my favorite long shot selection this week. He's in the top 10% of the field in terms of sheer Driving Distance, which he couples with an underrated short iron and wedge game. From 100-125 yards he has been deadly over the summer. I also think this is a fantastic course fit for his style of aggressive play from Tee to Green. Once he gets to the massive green surfaces that are featured at Wilmington Country Club, he's one of the best Bent Grass putters on tour and has substantial positive splits with his putting on quick Bent greens. He needs a major boost to get into the Tour Championship next week, and I believe he's your best bet if you are looking for a longshot to compete this week!

-- Joe Idone (@TourPicks)

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Tom Jacobs: Joaquin Niemann +4000 (Bet $100 to win $4000)

Niemann ranked 3rd in T2G last week and 11th in approach, suffering one bad round with his approaches on Thursday.

Niemann was 3rd in this event two years ago, albeit at a different course, but I like the fact but he has performed well at this time of year, and in this part of the country. The greens should suit him here and he has all the necessary components to push on again this week.

The last time we saw Niemann trending so well with his ball-striking was when he finished well 6th at Torrey Pines and 8th in Saudi Arabia, before going on to win the Genesis Invitational, for our readers. It feels like a similar situation this week, after treading water in recent starts, and now it is time for him to contend again.

He had a triple bogey on Thursday and a double bogey on Sunday and still finished T13, so it does make you wonder what could have been, but for a couple of really poor holes at the St. Jude.

Perhaps overlooked is the fact he is still only 23, and he's already won twice, once in a top-quality field and once by six strokes, and he's also lost two playoffs. He could quite easily be a four-time winner already then, at this stage of his career, and at 40-1 in a reduced field, I think he is being overlooked.

Niemann, despite his inconsistency, is right up there in terms of class, and with two top-16's alongside an up-and-down week at the Open Championship among his last three starts, he's clearly showing life. He will now look to make a late FedEx Cup push, at a course that should suit.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Geoff Fienberg: Hideki Matsuyama +6500 (Bet $100 to win $6500)

Using the OddsChecker grid I'm instantly attracted to Matsuyama's DraftKings price of +6500. Off a WD last week Matsuyama is once again a bit of mystery but history shows us he has a sneaky good recent post WD history with 4th and 14th place finishes off his most recent WDs. In any event, we feel confident the winner comes from the top, if I'm gonna find a longshot he must have some of that pedigree that top players in a field have.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

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Article Authors


Joe Idone is Golf Betting & DFS enthusiast from South Florida. He has spent the last 12 years focused primarily on PGA Tour analysis and isolating profitable golf wagers. In 2020, he profited over $130,000 in DFS Golf and has a longstanding documented history of hitting outright winners.


Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!


Known for his vast knowledge and entertaining approach to talking golf, has a documented record picking outright winners on the award winning podcast "The Pat Mayo Experience".


Founder of RickRunGood.com and Golf Host on CBS Sports.


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