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Shriners Hospital for Children Open picks and predictions for this week. The PGA Tour heads West to Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open. Golf handicapper Andy Lack is here to break it all down and give us his early picks.
ANALYSIS

Shriners Children's Open Picks and Predictions: Look for Cameron Davis, Tom Hoge to Impress

The Shriners Hospital for Children Open is a golf tournament that was founded in 1983 and is played annually in Las Vegas as part of the PGA Tour's fall swing. After moving around to a number of different courses in the greater Las Vegas area, the event found its current home at TPC Summerlin, which has been the sole host course for over a decade. Sungjae Im will be back to defend his title, and he will be joined by his Presidents Cup teammates, Cameron Davis, Tom Kim, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Taylor Pendrith, and K.H. Lee. The United States Presidents Cup will be represented strongly as well, as Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa will also be making the trip to Las Vegas.

Shriners Hospital for Children Course Preview

TPC Summerlin

I probably sound like a broken record at this point, but the formula at TPC Summerlin is fairly simple. Similar to Silverado and the Country Club of Jackson, the Bobby Weed design generally plays as one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour schedule. In fact, I believe that Summerlin is even more score-able than the first two stops on the fall swing. Playing as a par 71 and tipping out to 7,255 yards, TPC Summerlin was the sixth easiest course on the PGA Tour last year. It's important to consider that this course plays far shorter than its yardage suggests because it's located at altitude. For context, historic driving distance at TPC Summerlin is 296 yards, 14 yards higher than the Tour average of 282. Seven par fours measure under 450 yards, which explains the large plurality of short iron approaches. Players will need to be in attack mode from start to finish.

The only real defense of the golf course comes in the form of wind. In 2017, Patrick Cantlay won this event at nine-under par in blustery conditions. The average winning score across each of the last 10 editions is 22-under, so the Cantlay year is the true outlier. History would suggest that conditions will be benign, but the wind is worth monitoring as we get closer to tee-off. Early forecasts look less than imposing, and if benign conditions hold, expect the winning score to clear 20-under this week with ease. I will primarily be looking to target players that are elite inside 175 yards, are capable of catching fire with their flat-stick, and consistently raise their baseline in easy scoring conditions.

Shriners Hospital for Children Key Stats

  • Birdies or Better Gained
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass
  • Proximity 125-175 yards

Click Here for Shriners Children Open Odds

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Shriners Hospital for Children Picks and Predictions: Outright Winner

Cameron Davis (+4600) (Bet $100 to Win $4,600)

*Odds available on Bet365*

Coming off a strong performance at the Presidents Cup, I expect Cameron Davis to pick up his second career PGA Tour victory in the desert. The young Australian looked strong under pressure in the team event, and he was one of the lone bright spots on an International team that often looked severely outmatched. I believe that event was a confidence booster for many involved, even those on the losing team. The former Rocket Mortgage Classic winner now travels to a golf course that fits his game to a tee. Over the last year, Davis has turned into a truly excellent wedge player and Bent-grass putter, and I have little doubt about his ability to keep pace in a birdie-fest. With strong performances at Pebble Beach, TPC Deere Run, PGA West, and TPC Twin Cities, Davis should be right at home on a wide open desert TPC course, and the 5.9 strokes he gained ball-striking here last year provide further evidence.

Tom Hoge (+6000) (Bet $100 to Win $6,000)

*Odds available on DraftKings

Tom Hoge is a player that I will always have a soft spot for after we correctly predicted his victory at Pebble Beach, another West coast golf course that de-values driving and places a greater emphasis on the second shot, which often comes with a wedge. It should not come as a surprise that Hoge has similarly found success at TPC Summerlin, with a 14th and a 24th in his last two appearances. The 33-year-old is statistically the best wedge player in this entire field over a year plus sample size, and only Mito Pereira generates more birdie opportunities inside 15 feet per round than Hoge. The TCU product is coming off a 12th-place finish at the Fortinet where he gained 1.3 strokes off the tee and 4.2 strokes on approach. I expect him to continue his momentum in the Fall swing and find himself firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon in Las Vegas.

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Article Author

ROI N/A
Golf
insightpicks

Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York. Andy came to OddsChecker in January 2022 after previously writing for Golf Digest, GolfWRX, Rotoballer, and the Score. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. In his free time, Andy is still grinding away at his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur, and if not writing, can likely be found somewhere on a golf course.

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