Butterfield Bermuda Championship Picks and Predictions: Look for Chesson Hadley, Adam Schenk to Find Success

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Picks and Predictions: Look for Chesson Hadley, Adam Schenk to Find Success

The Butterfield Bermuda Championship is a relatively new professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour that debuted in 2019 as part of the 2020 season. The event is held at Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton Parish, Bermuda. Originally an alternate event to the WGC-HSBC Championship, the Butterfield Bermuda Championship was elevated to a full, standalone FedEx Cup event as the result of successive cancellations of the WGC due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The event now awards the winner with 500 FedEx Cup points, an invitation to the Masters, and features a prize fund of 6.5 million dollars.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Course Preview

Port Royal Golf Course

Port Royal Golf Course was designed in 1970 by Robert Trent Jones and has been hosting the course of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship since the tournament's inception in 2019. Playing as a par 71 and tipping out to just 6,828 yards on the scorecard, Port Royal is the shortest course on the PGA Tour schedule. While its length is less than imposing, the Jones design sits right on the western coast of Bermuda overlooking the Atlantic Ocean, and is exposed to gusting winds. The inaugural edition saw extremely benign conditions, and Brendon Todd cruised to victory at 24-under par, yet the past two years, the wind has been far more of a relevant factor in the tournament, with Brian Gay and Lucas Herbert both prevailing at 15-under par.

The wind really is the golf course's greatest defense, as Port Royal features extremely manageable Bermuda rough and large, receptive Bermuda greens. Six of the 11 par fours on the course measure under 400 yards, and none measure over 460 yards. The three par fives are a cakewalk as well, with both the 17th and 7th hole barely measuring over 500 yards and featuring over a 40% birdie rate. Port Royal's only real bite comes in the form of two long par threes on the back nine. The 13th and 16th holes both measure 235 yards on the scorecard, play almost a quarter stroke over par, and rank as the hardest two holes on the entire course. Still, close to 70% of all approach shots will likely come with a short iron. Even factoring in the potential for high winds, players will need to be dialed in with their wedges to keep pace. I will primarily be looking for players who are elite inside 150 yards, have shown a tendency to catch fire on Bermuda-grass greens, and generate birdie opportunities at a high clip.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Key Stats

• Proximity 100-150 yards
• Birdies or Better Gained
• Strokes Gained Putting: Slow, Bermuda-grass Greens

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Butterfield Bermuda Championship Picks and Predictions: Outright Winner

Adam Schenk (+5600) (Bet $100 to Collect $5,700)

*Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing

Sticking with the theme of the elite iron play, Adam Schenk ranks third in this field in strokes gained approach over his last 36 rounds. The 30-year-old is coming off a 16th at the Zozo Championship, and prior to that, he finished 12th at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open where he gained 1.7 strokes off the tee, 5.6 strokes on approach, and 1.4 strokes putting. Schenk is percolating right now with his irons, and in his last seven starts, he's gained over five strokes on approach on three separate occasions. A 26th-place finish here last year, a seventh at the Corales Punta Cana Championship, and a 14th at the Puerto Rico Open display a player who is extremely comfortable on coastal tracks with slower greens. I expect Schenk to be firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon in Bermuda.

Chesson Hadley (+8100) (Bet $100 to Collect $8,200)

*Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing

I was surprised to see Chesson Hadley rate out so well for me from a statistical standpoint, but a deeper investigation has me feeling extremely optimistic about his chances this week. The former Puerto Rico Open champion has been the number two iron player in this field over his last 36 rounds, the number three putter in this field on slow, Bermuda greens, and the number one ball striker in this field in windy conditions. Hadley is the only player in this field to rank top-10 in these three crucial categories. The 35-year-old is coming off a 37th-place finish at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open where he gained three strokes on approach and 4.8 strokes putting. The Georgia Tech product now returns to a course that he finished 16th in 2020. With a win at the Puerto Rico Open and multiple top-20 finishes at Pebble Beach, I expect Hadley to continue to thrive on short, wedge-heavy, coastal courses.

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