World Wide Technology Championship Prediction, Pick: Look for Collin Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo to Find Success

World Wide Technology Championship Prediction, Pick: Look for Collin Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo to Find Success

The World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba has been annually on the PGA Tour at El Cameleon Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, just south of Cancun. The tournament debuted in 2007 as the first PGA Tour event ever held to be held in Mexico. Originally conceived as an alternate event contested in the late winter opposite the WGC Match Play, the tournament was promoted in 2013 to a primary event that offers full FedEx Cup points, an invitation to the Masters, and a purse of 8.2 million dollars.

Last year, the event featured its strongest field ever, and while the 2022 lineup is significantly less packed with star power this year, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, and Aaron Wise will still all be in attendance. Hovland will attempt to be crowned champion for the third consecutive year. Read on to find out my prediction, pick, and odds for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.

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World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba: Course Preview

El Camaleon

The term, "short, positional, less-than-driver course" gets thrown around a lot on the PGA Tour, but El Camaleon is the truest embodiment. Playing as par 71 and measuring just a hair over 7,000 yards on the scorecard, the Greg Norman design is one of the shortest and tightest courses that players will see all year. With three par threes measuring under 155 yards, El Camaleon features the shortest set of one-shotters that players will see all year. Only one of the 11 par fours measures over 465 yards and all three of the par fives are reachable by even the shortest of hitters. Even considering the fact that paspalum fairways do not experience much runout, El Camaelon is still a very narrow course that takes the driver out of a player's hands, and yet still features a large plurality of short iron approach shots.

The term "coastal course" also gets thrown around a lot, and despite being in close proximity to the ocean, the majority of holes at El Camaleon actually run through a dense tropical jungle. Many of the holes are lined on both sides by a mangrove forest, which makes keeping the ball in the play of the utmost importance. Balls that find the mangroves will almost certainly be unplayable. For this reason, El Camaleon features one of the strongest correlations between driving accuracy and success, and players that struggle to find the short grass off the tee on a consistent basis are easy cross-offs for me this week. Despite many players clubbing down off the tee, the course still features a large plurality of short iron approaches, so identifying the best short to middle iron players in this field will also be crucial. Finally, El Camaleon features slow, grainless Paspalum putting surfaces. We can argue ad nauseam about whether Paspalum is an easy or difficult surface to putt on, but the reality of the situation is that it's a matter of personal preference. For this reason, I will also be looking to highlight the players that have a proven track record of success on Paspalum.

World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba Key Stats

• Driving Accuracy Percentage
• Proximity 125-175 yards
• Strokes Gained Putting: Paspalum

Click Here for World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba Odds

World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba Picks and Predictions: Outright Winner

Collin Morikawa (+1800) Bet $100 to Collect $1900 Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings

While this will be Collin Morikawa's debut appearance at El Camaleon, I'm surprised it hasn't been a regular part of his schedule given how well his game fits the course. The two-time major winner remains one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on the PGA Tour and is one of only seven players in this field to rank inside the top 15 in driving accuracy percentage and good drive percentage, which measures the percentage of fairways hit plus the number of greens in regulation hit from non-fairway locations. What this tells me is that World No. 9 is devoid of the big miss off the tee, and we haven't even gotten to the strongest aspect of his game: mid to short iron play. Morikawa has been the number one player in this field in proximity from 125-175 yards over the past year, a range that could account for upwards of 50% of the approach shots this week. While the 25-year-old experienced a bit of win regression in 2022, the arrow is firmly pointing up. Morikawa is coming off a vintage performance at the CJ Cup where he gained 2.8 strokes off the tee and 4.5 strokes on approach. I expect the five-time PGA Tour winner to tactically pick apart El Camaleon, and find himself firmly in the mix come Sunday in Mexico.

Emiliano Grillo (+4100) Bet $100 to Collect $4,200 Click here for the best odds, available at Bet365

With four top-fives in his last 10 starts, Emiliano Grillo has been no stranger to the first page of the leaderboard over the past few months. I could not think of a better spot than El Camaleon for the Argentinian to end his seven-year win drought. In six appearances at the Greg Norman design, Grillo has recorded four top-15 finishes. This should not come as a surprise as the 30-year-old's elite driving accuracy gives him a massive leg up on short, tactical golf courses. Grillo ranks second in this field in strokes gained off the tee on courses measuring under 7,200 yards, and he's not far behind in middle to short iron play either. The former Frys.com Open winner significantly raises his baseline on short, positional golf courses, and also boasts a proven track record on Paspalum. No need to overthink this one.