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Brian Kirschner previews the upcoming Pebble Beach Pro-AM and gives his predictions and picks. He also gives his perspective on the odds board and the two golfers he's targeting.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks and Predictions: Look for Thomas Detry, Ben Griffin to Find Success

The PGA tour is headed to the beautiful and scenic Monterey Peninsula this weekend for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Even though most of the elite talent on tour will not be making the trip, we still should be in for a good week of golf and hopefully find success in the outright market.

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Time and Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date - Thursday, February 2nd - Sunday, February 5th, 2023
  • Opening Tee Time - 11:30 a.m. ET - 6:00 p.m. ET
  • Where - Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California
  • Where to Watch - Golf Channel, CBS, ESPN+

Click here for Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Prediction

Much will be made of the field strength this week and rightfully so. This is really more due to the fact that the next two weeks are the new “designated events” with increased purses and all the top players required to play. We have Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, and Matt Fitzpatrick for top-end talent. The middle tier is being filled by 2022 winners Tom Hoge, Maverick McNealy, Seamus Power, and Kevin Kisner.

As stated in the name, the event this week is a pro-am and unlike what we saw at the AmEx, your favorite celebrities will be teeing it up. Another unique aspect of this event is that we have a three-course rotation. The world-famous U.S. Open hosting Pebble Beach will be played by golfers that make the cut twice. We also have a 54-hole cut instead of a 36-cut this week.

The three-course rotation consists of Pebble Beach, Monterey Peninsula, and Spyglass Hill. These three courses are all short par 72 with Poa greens. With many scoring opportunities on the Par 5’s and short par 4s on all three courses, a winning score of -17 or higher is very likely this week.

Although all three of these courses are well below tour average in their length, there is some differentiation in terms of the difficulty. Spyglass Hill is the most difficult, and Monterey Penisula is the easiest. Pebble falls somewhere in between these two. Another thing to note is that we only have shot tracker and strokes gained data on Pebble. Thus making it another difficult week to track your bets and analyze data.

Given these courses' length and small greens, it is no surprise that the last two winners of this event are known for their elite iron play. Tom Hoge and Daniels Berger’s best skill set is certainly their iron play. More specifically in the 100-150 range.

Overall, I am looking for great wedge players, with a history of success at Pebble or other shorter coastal tracks that have shown the ability to go low. I know that we have seen a pretty long run of favorites under 25/1 winning but this is a week I am very comfortable with starting my cad above 35/1. We have seen long shots do quite well at this event and of all weeks, I think this is one to take a shot on.

Here are the stats that I am looking for this week:

  • SG: App
  • Proximity 100-150
  • SG: ARG
  • SG: P (Poa)
  • Birdies or Better Gained
  • SG: Courses <7,200 Yards

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Outright selections for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

A golfer that I am super high on and have been targeting for an event like this is Belguim’s Thomas Detry. Currently listed at +5000 on DraftKings, this is more than a fair price for the 81st-ranked golfer in the field.

In his first full PGA Tour season, Detry got off to a great start this swing season highlighted by a solo second at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. To date, that is his best finish on tour and I think it is a wonderful comp for this week. Bermuda is an extremely short par 71 that is exposed to the coast and has the same exact winning score range as this week. He was also able to pick up a 15th-place finish the next week at the shorter Mayaoka Championship.

I also think that Detry is not the typical PGA tour rookie given his years of experience on the DP World Tour. In terms of total Strokes Gained over the past 50 rounds, Dertry ranks 3rd in this entire field. He also ranks 12th in Birdie or Better Percentage and eighth in Bogey avoidance.

I have talked about outright betting lot of the time comes down to wagering on golfers that you are higher on than the market. I very much so believe that Detry is skilled enough to win on tour and a field like this is perfect for that.

Another PGA Tour Rookie that popped at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship was Ben Griffin. A golfer that should model out well for everyone this week has a chance to avenge back 9 blow-ups earlier this year.

Since August, Griffen has found himself in the mix a few times and all are at short courses with an emphasis on iron play. Fourth place at the Wyndham, third at Bermuda, and 12th at the Sony Open. On courses where is not at a huge disadvantage off the tee, he tends to shine.

Over the past 50 rounds, Griffin ranks ninth in SG: App, 12th in SG Ball striking, and ninth in SG Tee to Green. Given his results on short courses, it is no surprise that he has excellent proximity numbers from inside 150 yards. As he ranked 12th from 100 to 125 and 14th from 125 to 150.

I would also feel like given his experience earlier this year of being in contention on Sunday holding and leading on the back nine bodes well for his chances to win an event. We have seen time and time again that gaining experience is vital for future success. Currently listed at 60/1 on DraftKings, this is a very easy bet on a golfer that is having a great season thus far.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks

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Article Author


Brian Kirschner is the host of the Tap in Birdie Podcast and is a golf betting content creator from Long Island. Every week Brian has prominent guests in the industry come on his podcast and break down the upcoming PGA Tour event from a betting/DFS perspective. Brian loves nothing more than sweating first round leader and outrights bets.

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