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Tom Jacobs is back with more value and sleeper picks on the PGA Tour. This week, the Tour heads to Pebble Beach for the famous AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
ANALYSIS

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Dahmen, Taylor to Thrive

The PGA Tour stays in California once more, as we get to visit a second historic venue in a row, Pebble Beach. Just like Torrey Pines last week, this is a U.S. Open venue where Tiger Woods has won, but this event is memorable for its format and the celebrities teeing up in the Pro-Am.

Unfortunately, this event is no longer supported by the players, and a lot of the bigger stars that did play in this event, have been teeing it up in Saudia Arabia and/or have joined the LIV Tour and can no longer play. This includes five-time champion, Phil Mickelson, and two-time champion, Dustin Johnson.

Enough of the names that won't be here though, let's take a look at the headliners in this field.

2017 champion, Jordan Spieth will be joined by Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland, giving the event three of the top 16 players in the world, but beyond that, it gets very thin. The next group of players in the field includes defending champion, Tom Hoge, up-and-comer, Maverick McNealy, Ireland's Seamus Power, and former World No.1, Justin Rose.

It is hardly a surprise that the best in the world opt against this event, given this is another three-course birdie-fest, just like we saw at the American Express two weeks ago. The best would rather skip this event which features a 54-hole cut and some very long rounds and instead come back at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, get $200 guaranteed on ANY Pebble Beach Pro-Am market this week. That means you can boost your favorite outright, top 10, or any other prop bet, to 40-1, and lock in an instant payout, even if it loses!

What is Required to Succeed at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?

Here are the top statistics to look at, ahead of the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

  • SG: Approach
  • Proximity from 100-125 Yards
  • SG: Putting on Poa Annua Greens
  • SG: Around the Green

In a complete contrast from Torrey Pines last week, this tournament is all about making plenty of birdies, with plenty of opportunities coming your way with a wedge in your hand. The courses are only protected by the wind and small greens, so if these players get to play here in benign conditions, and can hit these small greens with regularity, then this becomes another birdie-fest, where good putting on Poa Greens will be the order of the day.

SG: Around the Green is very rarely a factor on the PGA Tour when it comes to determining a winner, but with the small greens on offer on this three-course rotation, it is important to be able to get up and down, should you on occasion miss the target. In an event where everyone will be making birdies, failing to get up and down, and posting a bogey could be detrimental.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Trends

To help you potentially unearth a strong value or sleeper pick for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM, here are a bunch of trends that might help you narrow down your search criteria!

  • 15 of the last 16 winners have at least one previous career win (Tom Hoge exception)
  • 10 of the last 13 winners have at least three previous wins
  • 12 of the last 12 winners have at least 120 career starts on the PGA Tour
  • 13 of the last 13 winners have played the Pebble Beach Pro-Am at least twice
  • 14 of the last 14 winners have finished 16th or higher in at least one of their past three Pebble Beach Pro-Am Starts
  • 16 of the last 16 winners had finished 21st or higher in a previous Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • 11 of the last 14 winners had posted a top-11 finish already that season
  • 48 of the last 51 winners were born in the United States

These trends suggest we are looking for:

  • An experienced PGA Tour Player
  • A player who has already won
  • An American
  • A player that has finished inside the top-11 already this season
  • A player who has finished 21st or higher in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am before

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win the Farmers Insurance Open?

Here are the pre-tournament odds of the last 10 winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

2022 - Tom Hoge +6600

2021 - Daniel Beger +1800

2020 - Nick Taylor +16000

2019 - Phil Mickelson +2500

2018 - Ted Potter Jr. +50000

2017 - Jordan Spieth +900

2016 - Vaughn Taylor +30000

2015 - Brandt Snedeker +2500

2014 - Jimmy Walker +2800

2013 - Brandt Snedeker +1400

From this list, we can see that yes, longshots very much do win this event, but we can also see that some of the shortest-priced favorites have got over the line here, so it really is a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. If your longshot fits all the right trends and is playing well, be confident that they can at least contend in this quirky tournament.

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Here are my selections for this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM. All of these plays are +4000 or bigger in the outright market, in order to qualify for the value and sleeper pick criteria!

Joel Dahmen +4500 Outright (DraftKings)

Joel Dahmen has had a really strong start to his season, racking up top-10 finishes throughout the swing season, and now he will look to impress on his first start of 2023.

This will be Dahmen's first start of 2023, as he and his partner just announced the arrival of their first child. We have already seen what #perspective has done for Dahmen's buddy, Max Homa, and now it is time for Dahmen to show off to his newborn child.

Yes, there is the worry of some rust to knock off, but if there is an event that is friendly to those making their first start of the year, it is Pebble Beach. I for one am glad Dahmen is coming to this birdie-fest fresh, rather than trying to keep bogeys off the card in his first start back, which would have likely been the case last week at Torrey Pines.

Dahmen has finished 6th and 14th here, has made six-straight cuts since missing the weekend at the season opener, and posted three top-9 finishes before hanging up his clubs for the Christmas break.

He fits many trends, as he has played 156 times on Tour, already has a win under his belt, has finished inside the top 11 this season, and also has a top-21 finish or better at this event. In fact, the only trend he doesn't fit is three career wins, but not many contenders in this field will fit that one, given the strength of the field.

Nick Taylor +7000 Outright (FanDuel)

We have seen thirteen players win here twice or more over the history of this event, and while Nick Taylor is hardly in the class of many that have achieved that feat, I think he can add another Pebble Beach win to his tally.

It has been an up-and-down season for Taylor so far, but he's also finished 6th, 7th and 19th already, with the 7th coming two starts ago at the Sony Open. That is sold enough form for Taylor who returns to an event he has impressed at multiple times before.

Before winning in wire-to-wire fashion in 2020, the Canadian had already posted a 10th-place finish at this event, and he's added a 14th-place showing since.

Taylor is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, having won the Sanderson Farms Championship six years prior to his win here, so the 34-year-old is plenty experienced, and that tends to count for a lot in this event.

I like the fact Taylor's around the green game is in good shape (36th in SG Around the Green) and if he can get his irons firing as he did here in 2020 when winning wire-to-wire, he could make this pre-event price look very big.

Course form counts for plenty in this event, whether that be the quirkiness of the three courses, or just being comfortable in the pro-am format, and that will put Taylor in good stead for this one.

Russell Knox +8000 Outright (BetMGM)

Russell Knox's recent results may not inspire confidence, but he ranks 4th in this field in terms of SG Approach over the past 15 weeks, and his strong wedge and short iron play could eventually come to the fore here.

The Scot is the perfect candidate for a win at this event, given he is a PGA Tour veteran with a win to his name already, and while he could break the mold as an International winner, I think he is a good value and sleeper pick for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Over his last five starts here, Knox has finished 7th, 14th, 15th, and 33rd versus one missed cut, and he's overdue a win, not only here, but on the PGA Tour in general.

It was when 7th here in 2021 that he had his best chance of reversing both fortunes as he went into the final round in 2nd place and one shot behind Jordan Spieth. He was in a five-way tie for 2nd going into Sunday so it was clearly crowded, but being dealt a one-shot penalty in the final round, which seemed incredibly unfair, didn't help his cause.

It has been a bit of a lackluster start to his season so far, but he's still managed to post three top-25 finishes, and now arrives at an event where his strengths certainly come to the fore.

Back the Scot in a weak field to break his almost seven-year wait for a third PGA Tour victory.

Article Author

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Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!

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