Waste Management Picks and Predictions: Look for Tom Kim and Sam Burns to Find Success
Waste Management Picks and Predictions: Look for Tom Kim and Sam Burns to Find Success
Although there is still PGA Tour golf to be played today at Pebble Beach, it is officially Waste Magnement Phoenix Open Week. All across America bachelor parties, degenerate gamblers and beer lovers will convene in Phoenix, Arizona for one of the most anticipated non-majors of the PGA Tour season.
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Waste Management Time and Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date - Thursday, February 9th - Sunday, February 12th, 2023
- Opening Tee Time - Yet to be announced
- Where - TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Arizona
- Where to Watch - Golf Channel, CBS, ESPN+
Waste Management Prediction
Last year we saw a breakthrough winner, a green covered in beer cans, and two PGA tour golfers with their shirts off. These are not normal events to transpire on Tour and the reason is that this is not a typical PGA Tour event.
Given the recent divide in the world of professional golf, this year’s WMPO will be even more highly anticipated due to its increased prize pool and every single top PGA player except Will Zalatoris will tee it up this week.
Rory, Rahm, Scottie, JT, Cantlay, Homa, Finau, and every other golfer you love to watch will be fighting for a part of the increased 20M purse. The best part of all of this is that we will get some exceptional numbers on golfers this week. Many elite golfers with win equity will be seen higher than 20/1 on the odds board.
This is certainly a week that will garner attention from casuals that were not trying to find their favorite longshot last week at Pebble. Add in this year's Super Bowl taking place in nearby Glendale, AZ and there is going to be a massive party in Arizona this week.
This event takes place at TPC Scottsdale which is a 7,200-yard par 71 that features several risk/reward holes and features water throughout. The par 5 15th with water all along the left, the stadium par-3 16th, drivable 17th all make for one of the most exciting finishes in golf.
We have seen some very elite golfers win here over the past few years as most are either Major or Players champions. This checks out as you will need to be able to handle a ruckus and intense crowd coming down the stretch.
In terms of key things to look for, it has been shown that a lot of different styles of play can win here. This is not a course you must be a bomber at or a course that short, accurate golfers have dominated. Also, given the higher rate of putts made within 10 feet, poor putters can contend here.
I think extremely well-rounded golfers that are elite ball-strikers who can handle ruckus crowds will shine this week.
Key Stats that I am looking for:
- SG: OTT
- SG: APP
- SG: Ball-Striking
- Opportunities Gained
- Prox 150-200
- Bogeys Avoidance
- Birdies or better gained
Outright selections for Waste Management
Here are two golfers that I am targeting in the outright market this week.
A golfer that is excellent in SG: Large crowds is something Tom Kim is excellent in. Currently listed at +3400 on Bet365, I think this is a wonderful price for a great course fit. I have a feeling this number is going to move but I think still the 28s available are fair.
Already a winner in the desert this season, Tom Kim has come out of the gates very hot in his PGA Tour career. As stated before, Tom loves crowds and lively atmospheres as seen by his performance at the President Cups and the AmEx.
Tom has certainly figured out “Desert golf” as he already has a win at the Shriners and just finished T6 at the AmEx. I also believe this isn't a course where his lack of pop off the tee will not leave him at a massive disadvantage. Also, this course has the highest average driving distance, he should have no problem.
The putter has been the club that has held him back, I believe that with the ease golfers putt on these greens, he can hole more putts and his iron play can be paid off.
Second in SG: App, 11th in SG: T2G, and 11th in SG: ball striking, I think that a +3400 price on this good of ball striking is something that I can't pass up.
Another golfer that shined in the desert that I believe has odds I cannot pass up is Sam Burns who is currently listed at +5500 on DraftKings. Much like Tom, this play is very much based on the pure win equity Burns posses.
With four wins and two runner-ups since May of 2021, he should not be listed at +5500 in any field. I like that he popped at the AmEx a couple of weeks ago, Burns was able to finish 11th, while gaining strokes in all major categories. Burns is lethal when his flat stick gets hot and I think we can see that this week. He was able to gain 10+ strokes putting here in 2021.
Burns is a much better ball striker than he was back then and I think he is primed for another victory this week.
Waste Management Picks
- Tom Kim (+3400) Bet $100 to collect $3500. Bet365 has the best odds, click here
- Sam Burns (+5500) Bet $100 to collect $5600. DraftKings has the best odds, click here
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Article Author
Brian Kirschner is the host of the Tap in Birdie Podcast and is a golf betting content creator from Long Island. Every week Brian has prominent guests in the industry come on his podcast and break down the upcoming PGA Tour event from a betting/DFS perspective. Brian loves nothing more than sweating first round leader and outrights bets.