Genesis Invitational Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks
Genesis Invitational Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks
Last week's winner, Scottie Scheffler, came in with +1500 odds as the defending champion of the Phoenix Open and repeated as the winner. He didn't qualify for our longshot picks. But we're back this week as our seven golf experts give us their Genesis Invitational longshot picks on the PGA Tour this weekend.
The Genesis Invitational is the next stop on the PGA Tour and features some of the biggest names on the Tour, including Jon Rahm, Rory, and Scottie Scheffler. Even the greatest of all time Tiger Woods makes his return to the PGA Tour this week.
The average winning odds of the last 10 winners here at Riviera is +8000, which means longshots certainly can prevail! We have had three winners at +15000 and bigger here over the last ten years, and the last two years saw +6000 winners.
Geoff Feinberg, Rick Gehman, Brian Kirschner, Bradley Todd, Stuart Durst, Sam Eaton, and Tom Jacobs give us their favorite Genesis Invitational longshot pick ahead of Thursday's first round and break down why they think this week is the right time to strike.
Before we get into our Staff's Longshot picks for the 2023 Genesis Invitational, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, and win $150 when your first Moneyline wager wins. That means you can boost any of the favorites in the Genesis Invitational outright market to an effective 30-1 today!
Genesis Invitational Longshot Picks
Tom Jacobs: Adam Scott (+7000) (Bet $100 to Collect $7,100)
Yesterday, I put Adam Scott up at 55-1 as I thought he represented good value at that number. Now… he’s 70-1, and my interest only grows! Adam Scott must be looking around right now, seeing the likes of Justin Rose win and countryman Jason Day play some of his best golf and years, and now it’s his turn. Scott has won this tournament twice in his career, 15 years apart, and he can add a third this week. The Aussie has played 14 times since the PGA Championship last May and has not missed a cut in that time. 14th and 15th places in his final two majors of the year and back-to-back 5th place finish in the FedEx Cup ensured he ended last season strong, and now it is time to kick this one off. The year has started slowly in Hawaii, but he now returns to an event he has played 14 times, missed the cut just once, and including his two wins, has posted 8 top 11 finishes at this event.
-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)
Sam Eaton: K.H. Lee (+13000) (Bet $100 to Collect $13,100)
Two back-to-back Top 5’s for my longshots, following the Si Woo Kim winner, let’s hope the hot run keeps going. K.H. Lee is the one this week who has three top-30 finishes in his four starts at the Genesis. This is impressive, but even more impressive, given he’s dropped four shots in approach in his last two starts here.
K.H. Lee has happy memories with the flat stick here. He’s 5 shots with the putter twice at the Genesis. When you filter the last 24 rounds out, Lee ranks 6th in Prox: 150-175, 10th SG Around The Green, 14th GIRS Gained, and 14th in Prox: 175-200.
He’s well worth chancing at a massive 130/1!
-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)
Stuart Durst: Brian Harman First Round Leader (+8000) (Bet $100 to Collect $8,100)
With this being one of the strongest non-major fields of the season, I like getting a little bit more of my Longshot exposure in the First Round Leader market rather then the outright market. Harman is one of those guys that I’ve had more success with in the earlier rounds of these tournaments, and I like him at Riviera. This is a course where short game definitely matters, and being able to creatively get out of the rough and save par is important. Harman has solid course history here, and this is also a course where we have seen lefties succeed a decent amount. I like taking the risk that he gets out to a strong start, and I’ll add in an additional top-20 bet for the tournament, because I think he sticks around throughout Sunday.
-- Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal)
Bradley Todd: Matthew Fitzpatrick (+4000) (Bet $100 to Collect $4,100)
I'm going to be cheeky this week and put up Matthew Fitzpatrick as my 'longshot' at 40/1. There have been some doubts about Fitzpatrick in recent weeks mainly due to a neck injury. He said he's had it on and off over the years but can play through it; he just doesn't get his usual speed. Last week he finished T29th and closed with a round 65. It was his first round in 60's since the TOC. It might well be a sign that he's playing pain free and possibly turned a corner. He's been struggling mainly with his irons and unfortunately still lost strokes on approach in that final round but it was better. The rest of his game was firing on all cylinders. According to his caddy Billy Foster, Fitzpatrick absolutely loves it at Riviera. He feels as though the course suits his eye for shot making. Over the years Fitzpatrick has gained a reputation across the tours for enjoying a tough, strategic test of golf. The win at Valderrama springs to mind. He finished 30th at Riviera on debut and 5th last year. Granted, he was in a lot better form and health than he is now but that round of 65 might just be an indicator that he's on his way back. I think he's an excellent price this week on a course that suits his eye.
-- Bradley Todd (@Bradley_Todd)
Brian Kirschner: Keegan Bradley (+6600) (Bet $100 to Collect $6,700)
I have been waiting for a spot to back Keegan for his second win of the season, and I think the Genesis is a perfect spot for him. Off the heels of a runner-up finish at Torrey Pines and top 20 at the WM Phoenix Open, Keegan is undoubtedly in great form.
The 21st-ranked golfer in the world was able to lead the field in putting at Torrey on similar poa greens while also gaining 4 strokes on approach. Keegan has always been a golfer that shined on difficult conditions, and we should get that this week.
Over the past 50 rounds, on difficult scoring conditions. Keegan ranks 11th in total strokes gained, 7th in SG: OTT, and 15th in Ball Striking. I don't think Keegn is done just yet.
-- Brian Kirschner (@BrianKirschner_)
Rick Gehman: Wyndham Clark (+8000) (Bet $100 to Collect $8,100)
Clark enters with plenty of confidence off a T10 last week in Phoenix. His game -- long off-the-tee with an above average short-game -- is exactly the recipe for success around Riviera. He's turned those skills into (2) Top 17 finishes in his last three years and now he's playing some of the best golf of his life.
-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)
Geoff Fienberg: Alex Noren (+10000) (Bet $100 to Collect $10,100)
Noren was coming off three consecutive world wide top 5 finishes before his missed cut in Phoenix last week, which was also his first start in America 2023. If you look deeper into last week's MC, you'll notice Noren was still delivering with his approach and putter play, gaining nearly 2 strokes combined. Some of his best results in North America have come in California, so I expect him to be comfortable and was surprised he didn't show up at Torrey Pines but he made the right decision with his 5th place finish in Abu Dhabi. A longshot in an elevated event feels like a scary proposition, but in the quest to find who can try and be this weeks Nick Taylor, my pick is Noren +10000.
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)
Known for his vast knowledge and entertaining approach to talking golf, has a documented record picking outright winners on the award winning podcast "The Pat Mayo Experience".
Founder of RickRunGood.com and Golf Host on CBS Sports.
Brian Kirschner is the host of the Tap in Birdie Podcast and is a golf betting content creator from Long Island. Every week Brian has prominent guests in the industry come on his podcast and break down the upcoming PGA Tour event from a betting/DFS perspective. Brian loves nothing more than sweating first round leader and outrights bets.
Bradley Todd is best known for his knowledge of golf on a global scale. He shares his bets across all the tours on his Patreon and has turned a profit of 700+ points for the last three years. He can also be found weekly on the Lost Fore Words podcast contributing his thoughts of the upcoming PGA/DPWT events.
Stuart Durst, also known as @MonotoneFootbal on Twitter, is a writer and sports bettor specializing in the NFL, NBA and CFB. When he’s not writing for OddsChecker, he enjoys playing basketball and talking player props with his community.
Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!