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The 2023 Players Championship is just a few days away as the PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass. So, we obviously need our Players Championship longshot picks for this week's card. Our team of golf handicappers give us their favorite pick over +3500.
ANALYSIS

Players Championship Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

It's time for The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass as the PGA Tour makes one of its most-anticipated stops of the calendar year. No, it's not a major, but it's about as close as it gets.

As we do every week, we've brought in our team of golf handicappers to help break down their favorite Players Championship longshot picks. That's any golfer with odds over +3500, meaning there are a ton of options on the board.

This week, only 11 golfers have Players Championship odds that disqualify them from being a longshot, so Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Andy Lack, Sam Eaton, Tom Jacobs, Bradley Todd, Brian Kirschner and Stuart Durst had plenty of options to choose from.

Who should be your Players Championship pick for your longshot? Let's take a look and find out.

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Players Championship Longshot Picks

Sam Eaton: Chris Kirk (+8000) (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

Chris Kirk's form deserves more than an 80/1 shout at The Players Championship. Kirk obviously won the Honda but has also recorded 3rd-place finishes at both the Sony Open and The American Express this year. Kirk's Players form isn't too promising but when you dig deeper it's the putter which has been the most costly, dropping shots with the flatstick in his four previous starts at the event. His putter is one of the main reasons for his recent success, gaining 2.7 shots on average in his last five events.

In the last three months, Chris Kirk is 7th in this field when it comes to SG Approach, 7th Opportunities Gained, 2nd SG Par 4's and 10th GS T2G.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Geoff Fienberg: Corey Conners (+7000) (Bet $100 to collect $7,100)

Conners was right in the heat of contention at the midway point at Bay Hill,  some weekend struggles saw him finish what many would consider a disappointing 21st, but his ball striking was once again fabulous, gaining nearly a stroke per round.  We now head up the coast to Sawgrass where Corey has a 7th and 26th place finish the last two years and has a proven history of rewarding outstanding approach play while also allowing some of the weaker putters on Tour into the winners' circle. If Corey can carry over some of his tour-median putting performances of the last couple of weeks, his ball striking could get us the weekend tee time we desire.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Rick Gehman: Adam Scott (+8000) (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

The savvy vet has made the cut at THE PLAYERS in nine of his last ten years with (6) Top 20 finishes during that stretch. Speaking of making cuts, Scott has found the weekend in every event he's played around the world since the PGA Championship -- currently 15 in a row. He's proven that he can separate himself from the field when conditions get more difficult and he'll be able to tap into his experience around TPC Sawgrass to find success.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Stuart Durst: Shane Lowry (+5500) (Bet $100 to collect $5,600)

After Kurt Kitayama held off Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth and Thursday Twitter winner Jon Rahm last week, we finally have some hope for the longshots again! While Shane Lowry is coming off a less impressive week, API has never been his favorite event, with him making his first cut there last week. He was in great form before that, recording back-to-back T20 finishes. Shane Lowry is playing some of his best golf off the tee right now, but his well-rounded game should put him in a position to be in contention on Friday. One of the other big risks of TPC Sawgrass is always the weather conditions ramping up, and Lowry is one of the most experienced wind players in the field. I'm used to betting on Shane in the mid-thirties range. I like him at this price especially if conditions get grimy this week. 

-- Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal)

Tom Jacobs: Keegan Bradley (+5000) (Bet $100 to collect $5,100)

Keegan Bradley is edging ever closer to his brilliant best right now, and it doesn't seem a stretch to suggest he could challenge for major championships this year, so why not give him a chance at The Players first?

Bradley has already won this season, at the ZOZO Championship, and his confidence has gone to a new level since that win.

Just in 2023, Bradley has already finished 2nd at the Farmers Insurance Open, 20th in Phoenix and 10th last week, and now he returns to TPC Sawgrass, where he has posted four straight top-30 finishes.

His 5th place finish here last year is his best so far at the course, and that bettered a 7th two years prior, so he's clearly a fan of the layout these days.

Bradley has ranked 25th or better in both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green in the three starts mentioned above, so his ball striking is in fine order, and he can certainly win this event.

As a player who has two runner-up finishes in Florida, a 2nd at another Pete Dye design, at the Travelers Championship, and has two top 7s here... Bradley fits the bill as the perfect longshot

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Brian Kirschner: Shane Lowry (+5500) (Bet $100 to collect $5,600)

To be completely honest, I am just very confused by this number on the 2019 Open Champion. Given the volatility of this course, there are just not many guys in the entire field that have the course history that Lowry does. Over the past two years at this event, Shane has finished 8th and 13th. In both those finishes, Shane has gained strokes in all four major categories. Shane is one start removed from leading the field in SG: Tee-to-Green at the Honda Classic and gaining 9 strokes all striking. Lowry also had a great finish at the Genesis Invitational, where he gained 7.3 strokes tee-to-green on way to a 14th-place finish. There is a lot of evidence to show that you need to have experience chipping and putting on these Bermuda Grass greens. In his career, Shane has gained 4.6 ARG and 5.9 putting at this event. This is a sign that he is comfortable on this surface and can certainly chip and putt here. I just do not believe that there is a better value on the board than a past major champion, in good form at a course he has played well at. +5500 is an easy bet for me. 

-- Brian Kirschner (@BrianKirschner_)

Andy Lack: Keegan Bradley (+5000) (Bet $100 to collect $5,100)

Keegan Bradley is the exact type of player farther down the odds board that I know is capable of winning an event of this caliber. A former winner of the PGA Championship, a FedEx Cup playoff event, and a WGC, Bradley is coming off a strong performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he gained 6.6 strokes ball-striking. Now he returns to a venue where he has experienced a fair amount of success at, including a fifth-place finish last year. I expect Bradley to be firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon in Jacksonville.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Bradley Todd: Webb Simpson (+15000) (Bet $100 to collect $15,100)

2022 was a year to forget for Webb Simpson as he failed to register a single top-10 finish. The seven-time PGA Tour winner did have injury problems, suffering from a bulging disc in his neck which kept him out of action for a few months. This of course disrupted his season and resulted in him having his worst year on Tour to date. After a slow start to the year, Webb has made his last three cuts and looks to be hitting the ball a lot better. Last time out at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he closed with a round of 66 to finish T24th. Webb struggled off the tee all week but did improve by the final round; his irons in particular were brilliant ranking 6th on approach. That final round might just be a sign that he isn't too far away from a big performance. If it was going to come anywhere, it would be at a course such as TPC Sawgrass where he's a previous winner. What he lacks in distance, he can make up for elsewhere on this course. Webb Simpson has got to be worth chancing at 150/1.

-- Bradley Todd (@Bradley_Todd)

Article Authors

GolfNFL

Known for his vast knowledge and entertaining approach to talking golf, has a documented record picking outright winners on the award winning podcast "The Pat Mayo Experience".

Golf

Founder of RickRunGood.com and Golf Host on CBS Sports.

GolfNBAMLBNHLNFLNCAAFNCAAB

Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!

Golf

Brian Kirschner is the host of the Tap in Birdie Podcast and is a golf betting content creator from Long Island. Every week Brian has prominent guests in the industry come on his podcast and break down the upcoming PGA Tour event from a betting/DFS perspective. Brian loves nothing more than sweating first round leader and outrights bets.

Golf

Bradley Todd is best known for his knowledge of golf on a global scale. He shares his bets across all the tours on his Patreon and has turned a profit of 700+ points for the last three years. He can also be found weekly on the Lost Fore Words podcast contributing his thoughts of the upcoming PGA/DPWT events.

Golf

Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York. Andy came to OddsChecker in January 2022 after previously writing for Golf Digest, GolfWRX, Rotoballer, and the Score. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. In his free time, Andy is still grinding away at his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur, and if not writing, can likely be found somewhere on a golf course.

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Stuart Durst, also known as @MonotoneFootbal on Twitter, is a writer and sports bettor specializing in the NFL, NBA and CFB. When he’s not writing for OddsChecker, he enjoys playing basketball and talking player props with his community.

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