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Brian Kirschner previews the upcoming Valspar Championship and makes predictions and picks. The PGA expert also gives his perspective on the odds board and the two golfers he's targeting. Let's get into it!

Valspar Championship Picks and Predictions: Look for Wyndham Clark and Ben Taylor to Find Success

After a somewhat anticlimactic PLAYERS Championship where Scottie Scheffler ran away from the field, the Florida Swing concludes this week at the Valspar Championship. This event is held at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. We are getting a nice change of pace from the designated events, so we are not seeing a superfield this week, but we have a good number of elite talent teeing it up this week. 

Given its position in the schedule after The PLAYERS and before the Matchplay, it is great to see a good field in Florida. Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Jordan Speith, and Keegan Bradley are all looking for the first win of the calendar year this week. 

2023 Valspar Championship Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Dates: March 16-19, 2023
  • Where: Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club (Palm Harbor, Florida)
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, NBC, Golf Channel

Click here for Valspar Championship odds

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Valspar Championship Prediction

The interesting thing about this week is that in the last four iterations of this event, there are only two winners. Paul Casey won in back-to-back years in 2018 and 2019. Then Sam Burns won the past two additions to this event. This certainly proves the point that this is an event where certain golfers can have continued success. Past winners of this event also include Adam Hadwin, Charl Schwartzel, Jordan Speith, and Gary Woodland. 

Before Sam Burns tore this course up the past two years, this was undoubtedly always considered one of the more challenging events on the PGA Tour. The scoring average from 2014 to 2019 was -9. However, Sam Burns has won the past two seasons at -17. This is certainly something to monitor as this is a difficult tee-to-green test that should challenge even the best golfers in the world. To combat the winning score seen in the past two years, event organizers have increased the rough by one inch. Making hitting the fairway even more of a premium this week. 

The Copperhead course at Innisbrook is a 7,300-yard par-71 that features tight treelined fairways. This is one of the most difficult driving courses on the PGA Tour, as it forces the best players to lay off the tee and leaves them with longer approach shots. This course features five par 3s, which average around 212 yards. With four par 5s and above-average distance par 4s, golfers will be hitting many approach shots from 175+. 

Overall I am looking for golfers that have played well during the Florida swing, are great ball strikers with above-average long iron play, and can handle difficult conditions. 

Click here for $5000 worth of sports betting bonuses to use for the Valspar Championship.

Key Stats for this week:

  • SG: OTT
  • Driving Accuracy 
  • SG: APP
  • Proximity: 175+ 
  • SG: Putting (Bermuda) 
  • Bogey Avoidance 

Here are two golfers I am targeting in the outright market this week. 

Valspar Championship Picks

Wyndham Clark (+4000) Bet $100 to collect $4,100 Get the best odds at FanDuel; click here to bet

Wyndham has always been one of my favorite golfers on the PGA Tour and someone I have wagered a lot of money on over the past year. I believe that this week is when he finally is set to break through and win on the PGA Tour. 

This Oregon graduate has been playing some great golf as of late and has been very hot with his irons. From Farmers to API, Clark gained, on average, 4.6 strokes on the field with his irons. This run is good enough for him to rank second in this field in SG: APP over the past 24 rounds. Wyndham also ranks second in SG: T2G and sixth in Ball-Striking during this time. 

Clark has said himself that he believes he likes longer, more difficult golf courses, and we have exactly that this week. Clark has also been shown to be an extremely consistent golfer, as he has made his last 10 cuts on the PGA Tour. During this run, Wyndham has finished in the top 16 on four separate occasions. 

The strong iron play has always been a strong indicator of success here. Getting one of the best iron players in the field this week at +4000 is value to me, and I hope to be on board for his first PGA Tour win. 

Ben Taylor (+15000) Bet $100 to collect $15,100 Get the best odds at BetMGM; click here to bet

It is not very often that you can get a golfer with three top 5 finishes this year at this good of odds, but we have found that this week with Ben Taylor. It is likely that if you are not a diehard fan of the PGA tour, this name might not sound familiar to you. However, Ben Taylor has been one of the most impressive rookies this year. 

Ben Taylor started his first season on the PGA Tour with a third-place finish at the Houston Open and, since 2023, has had some really impressive results. Taylor finished fourth at the Sony Open and recently finished fifth at the Honda Classic. These are all Bermuda grass golf courses, with two having difficult conditions. This is certainly going to be a golfer that I want to target on difficult bermuda tracks, which we have this week. 

Ben ranks third in this field in SG: putting (Bermuda), 19th in total strokes gained, and third in SG: short game over the past 50 rounds in this field. I think that the odds board is overlooking a golfer that has shown he can contend on the PGA Tour in his first season.

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Article Author


Brian Kirschner is the host of the Tap in Birdie Podcast and is a golf betting content creator from Long Island. Every week Brian has prominent guests in the industry come on his podcast and break down the upcoming PGA Tour event from a betting/DFS perspective. Brian loves nothing more than sweating first round leader and outrights bets.

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