Mexico Open at Vidanta Picks and Predictions: Look for Matti Schmid and Carson Young to Find Success

Mexico Open at Vidanta Picks and Predictions: Look for Matti Schmid and Carson Young to Find Success

It is an odd week on the PGA Tour as we head to the Mexico Open. We are faced with the challenge of a course we have only seen once before and an extremely lackluster field. In my opinion, this is one worst events for outright betting on the PGA Tour; this is largely due to Jon Rahm. Defending champion of this event and number one player in the world.

The good news is that we are almost certain Jon Rahm is going to win this week; the bad news is that he's +250, the price of an underdog in an NBA game. In my opinion, the best way to bet on this event is in the “without Jon Rahm market.” I would assume most books will have this market up shortly. The odds are worse, but it gives you a much better chance of winning.

2023 Mexico Open Start Time and Where to Watch

• Dates: April 27 - April 30, 2023
• Where: Vidanta Vallarta - Villa Hidalgo, Mexico
• Where to Watch: Golf Channel, CBS, ESPN+, Paramount+

Mexico Open Predictions

The field this week is headlined by the prior mentioned Jon Rahm. Tony Finau, Gary Woodland, and Wyndham Clark are all also in the field looking for this first PGA tour win this season.

This week we are at Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta golf course. This is a 7,456-yard, Par 71 course with Paspalum greens. For a Par 71, this course is certainly longer than a lot of PGA tour courses. At the same time, it is a resort course. Pure length is not going to stop the best golfers in the world from making loads of birdies, as we saw with a winning score of -17 last year. This course features wide fairways and large paspalum greens.

The length of the tee and prox from 200+ is going to be extremely important this week. We saw last year's leaderboard littered with long hitters, and that is another reason why Rahm is destined to repeat. The course has three par 3’s over 190 yards, very long par 5s, and six par 4’s over 450 yards. It is no surprise that distance OTT is going to be imperative.

Mexico Open Picks

Matti Schmid +17500 is currently the best odds. Click here to find out which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick

A PGA Tour rookie that I am looking at in the outright market this week is Matti Schmid. Last year, with very little knowledge of the course and little understanding of how it would play, it became clear that bombers had a big advantage.

The top of the leaderboard was littered with big hitters such as Kurt Kitayama, Cameron Champ, Nate Lashley, and Trey Mullinax. Above-average long iron play and driving distance are going to be a massive advantage for golfers this week. For these reasons, I am happy to wager on Matti Schmid this week.

Mattias Schmid ranks 14th in this field in proximity to 200+ and 18th in driving distance. This is a pretty simple formula that I am looking for. I believe that with his elite driving and great long iron play, he is a long shot that can find himself a the top of the leaderboard.

Matti has had some decent starts this year, as he finished sixth at the Amex earlier this year. In his last regular PGA Tour start, Schmid finished 46th at the Valero Texas Open, but that doesn't tell the whole story. He was able to gain 5.4 strokes from tee to green but was horrific on the greens losing 4.4 strokes.

Teaming up last week with Dylan Fritelli, this duo was able to finish T27 at the Zurich at -17. I really like the course fit and the number in the outright market this week. I will also be playing him in the “without Rahm” betting market at +9000.

Carson Young +39000 is currently the best odds. Click here to find out which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick

As stated before, this is really a tough week to see longshot realistically win; however, I do think Carson Young has a better chance than the golfers in this range to contend. Carson Young is certainly a golfer that I am high on and think will be a notable name on the PGA Tour for years to come.

Young has already popped in his rookie season at The Puerto Rico Open. Young led after the first two rounds and played in the final group on his way to a third-place finish. I think the course that week is a decent comp course for Vidanta. Coco Beach is another resort-style, a long golf course that is exposed to the winds. Mix in the fact that they are both at Paspaulm Greens, and it is easy to see how there would be cross-over success.

Carson also just put on an excellent ball-striking display at RBC Heritage just two weeks ago. On way to a 19th-place finish in an elevated event, Young gained seven strokes ball-striking. Carson is a talent that I believe in, and I think he can break onto the scene much like Kurt and Bradon Wu did last year. I will also note that Carson is +19000 in the without Jon Rahm market this week. I think that is another great bet.

Golf Odds

• Can Jon Rahm win the first two majors of the year? The latest PGA Championship odds favor him
• 2023 Mexico Open odds are available here
• The Open is the only major championship Jon Rahm isn't favored to win in 2023. Check out the latest odds from The Open to see who is the favorite at Royal Liverpool