AT&T Byron Nelson Picks and Predictions: Look for Jordan Spieth and Stephan Jaeger to Find Success
AT&T Byron Nelson Picks and Predictions: Look for Jordan Spieth and Stephan Jaeger to Find Success
The PGA Tour is headed to Dallas, Texas, for the AT&T Byron Nelson this week. In a week that most golfers are getting prepared for the PGA Championship in a weeks time, some golfers have made their way to Dallas for one last event.
Where this event falls on the calendar has put it in a tough spot, sandwiched between an elevated event and a major. To make matters even worse, Dallas is 1,400 miles away from Rochester, and most golfers are not willing to make the trip before the PGA.
Some Texas ties are bringing top names to the course this week as world No. 2 and No. 10, Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Speith, are in the field. Jason Day, Tom Kim, Tyrell Hatton, and Si Woo Kim are looking to get a victory before the second major championship of the year.
AT&T Byron Nelson Start Time and Where to Watch
- Dates: May 11 - May 14, 2023
- Where: TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, CBS, Golf Channel
AT&T Byron Nelson Prediction
This event has been held at TPC Craig Ranch for the past two years. This is one of the most straightforward, bland, and least exciting courses on the PGA Tour. A 7,400-yard par 72 that featured bentgrass greens and zoysia fairways. This course yields a TON of birdies; we have seen winning scores of -25 and -26 the last two years at this event. Shooting -17 over four days on a PGA Tour setup would not have even landed you a top 20 at this event last year.
Since moving to TPC Craig Ranch, we have seen one golfer dominate this course, and that man is K.H. Lee. Winner of the last two iterations of this event, it is one of the only times a golfer’s only two wins are at the same event. Lee has certainly not been an elite golfer outside of this event but is the definition of a course horse.
Given the field, I think this is going to be a week that people struggle to find value and a lot of attractive options to bet. I am not going to lie and say something different, this odds board is incredibly bleak and certainly not an event I am super excited for.
Overall, I am looking for in-form ball strikers that can score on par 5s and have the potential to make a lot of birdies. Let’s get into my favorite selections for this week.
AT&T Byron Nelson Picks
Jordan Spieth (+1000) Bet $100 to collect $1,100 DraftKings has the best odds
I really never venture to this portion of the odds board in selecting outrights for the week; however, desperate times call for desperate measures. Jordan Speith is quite easily a top-three player on tour that has yet to lift a trophy. Much like the past two years on tour, I believe that Jordan is going to pay off some great form with a win in a weaker field.
Jordan has pretty much dominated in The Lone Star State ever since his return to form in 2021. He broke a four-year winless drought at the Valero Texas Open. Later that year, he finished ninth at the Bryon Nelson and solo second at Colonial. This trend did not stop last year, as he finished runner-up at this event and seventh at Colonial. Jordan Spieth always elevates his game in his home state.
Spieth has also been playing some excellent golf this season. Jordan has six top-six finishes this season already. The part that is best is that he has truly been in contention to win three events this year, falling a little flat on Sunday. API, Valspar, and RBC. Jordan was very much so in a position to win those tournaments on the back nine of Sunday. That is extremely important in my eyes; he is battle tested and knows how close he is to winning.
This three-time Major champion ranks second in this field in SG: Approach and first in birdies or better gained in this field. All signs indicate Jordy getting it done in his home state this week.
Stephan Jaeger (+5500) Bet $100 to collect $5,600 BetRivers has the best odds
I honestly feel really great about Stephan Jaeger this week. This guy is a top 15 ball striker in the field and seems to do his best work on bent grass greens. In my opinion, Stephan is exactly the long shot that I think can succeed at this event.
I want to get this out of the way first, Stephan Jaeger is a terrible putter; his putting stats are almost impressive with how bad they are. He has now lost strokes putting in ten straight starts on the PGA Tour. I do, however, think this is a week that he can turn it around. If you look at his best-putting performances on tour, they are almost all on bent grass greens. He gained 6.2 at the Houston Open, 5.1 a the Rocket Mortgage, and five at the Barbasol, and these were all on Bent Grass greens.
He has also been playing some solid golf this year, making 10 of 12 cuts and finishing in the top 40 seven times. In his last two starts, he has gained 10.5 and 8.6 strokes from tee to green. He was able to gain a staggering 8.2 strokes on approach at the Mexico Open. He is long off the tee, and an excellent iron player, and I believe that if he just gains a couple of strokes putting, he will be in the mix on Sunday.
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Article Author
Brian Kirschner is the host of the Tap in Birdie Podcast and is a golf betting content creator from Long Island. Every week Brian has prominent guests in the industry come on his podcast and break down the upcoming PGA Tour event from a betting/DFS perspective. Brian loves nothing more than sweating first round leader and outrights bets.