PGA Championship Picks and Predictions: Look for Patrick Cantlay and Keegan Bradley to Find Success

PGA Championship Picks and Predictions: Look for Patrick Cantlay and Keegan Bradley to Find Success

The long-awaited second major of the season is headed up to Rochester, New York, for the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Since its move from August to May, The PGA Championship has provided some of the most compelling winners, Sunday finishes, and championship golf courses. I expect no different this week.

I am lucky enough to be headed up to Rochester this week for the year's PGA Championship. I am extremely excited for this event, northeast golf, and hopefully, one of the golfers I bet on to be in contention on Sunday.

With all of the changes to the world of professional golf that has happened over the past year, one thing is clear: Major Championships are much more compelling. All the best golfers in the world teeing it up together, regardless of the tour they play on, are bound to create some exciting tournaments.

PGA Championship Start Time and Where to Watch

• Dates: May 18 - May 21, 2023
• Where: Oak Hill Country Club - Rochester, NY
• Where to Watch: CBS, ESPN, ESPN+

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP Prediction

The PGA Championship has undergone some identity changes over the past decade, and from 2019 on, we have seen extremely difficult tests on awesome golf courses that have produced winning scores of -5, -6, -13, and -8. From everything I've gathered on the newly restored Oak Hill, this will be an extremely difficult major championship. I believe that the winning score will be from -4 to -8.

We last saw Oak Hill host a major championship in 2013. Jason Dufner won his only major two strokes ahead of Jim Furyk at -10. Other golfers to finish in the top 10 were Henrik Stenson, Jonas Blixt, Zach Johnson, and Davis Toms. You could draw from this that shorter, more accurate golfers have a leg up at this course, which is much more different than what we normally see at majors. I don't think that is going to be the case this week.

This course underwent a major restoration in 2019 by Andrew Green. This restoration set out to restore the original Donald Ross character. Hundreds of trees were removed, fairways were pinched, fairway bunkers were added, and the greens and bunkers were restored. The course will play as a 7,400-yard par 70. Par adjusted, this is an extremely long golf course with minimal scoring opportunities. Andrew Green is also on record for saying that these bunkers are “most definitely hazards.”

The par 5’s are 615 and 623 yards which will yield very few eagle looks. There are seven par 4s over 460 yards, and there are two par 3’s over 230 yards. Quickly looking at the scorecard, you can see the 14th is a driveable par 4. However, severely elevated greens with harrowing bunkers are going to discourage most golfers from going for it.

It sounds so cliche, but you are going to need a complete game to compete here this week. An above average driver of the golf ball, an elite long iron player, a great short game, and has a history of putting well on Bent.

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP PICKs

Patrick Cantlay +2100 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Last year, we saw two types of major champions. Scottie and Cam Smith capped off an incredible year with multiple wins ending with their first career major. Justin Thomas and Matt Fitzpatrick paid off a run of incredible form that hadn't resulted in a win with a Major Championship. I think that Cantaly perfectly fits into the second category, as no one has been playing better golf this season without a win than him. Patrick Cantlay has been more in the golf media spotlight for his pace of play this his actual play recently, but I think it's important to focus on just how great he has been this year. Third place at the Genesis, fourth at API, 19th at the Players, 14th at The Masters, third at RBC, and 21st the Wells Fargo. This UCLA grad is having a truly special run of golf but has not found the winner’s circle. It is eerily similar to the run of golf that JT and Fitz went on before their major breakthroughs last year.

Elite driving is going to be extremely important this week, and there are only a few players that possess such an elite mix of both distance and accuracy OTT. Cantlay is one of them. Over his last five measured starts, Cantlay is gaining on average 4.8 strokes OTT.

Over the past 24 rounds, Cantlay ranks first in the entire field in SG: OTT, fourth in Ballstriking, and second in SG: Tee to Green. Patrick is the third-best ball striker on planet Earth right now, so I am more than happy with a 22/1.

We have seen Cantlay find the winner's circle almost exclusively on bent grass greens, and that is another reason I love him this week. Cantlay’s last four victories on the PGA Tour have come on bent, as he was victorious at The 2022 and 2021 BMW Championship, the 2021 Memorial, and the 2020 ZOZO. It is also important to note that the last two BMW Championships were in the northeast at driver-heavy courses. Cantlay’s also best major finish was a T3 at the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage Black. This is, without a doubt, the single best event/course comp to this week.

After an extremely disappointing 2021 PGA Championship, Cantlay has steadily improved his results in major championships. Finishing top 14 in his last three majors, including a top 10 at the Open Championship. Patrick Cantlay is going to have a major breakthrough this week at Oak Hill and get his first major championship.

Keegan Bradley +12500 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

This is a bet that I have placed for quite some time, and I truly feel as good about it as you can a triple-digit odds bet at a major. The 2011 PGA Championship and 5-time PGA Tour winner has had quite the career resurgence recently. Keegan got back into the winner's circle this past fall at the ZOZO Championship.

There are always two times I like to target Keegan, on northeast bent courses and long, difficult courses that reward ball-striking. Luckily, Oak Hill checks both of these boxes. This Boston native that went to college in New York has finished seventh at the 2022 U.S Open, second at the 2022 Wells Fargo, 11th at the 2021 Northern Trust, and second at the 2019 Travelers Championship int he Northeast. It is also worth noting that four out of five of Keegan's victories have come on bent grass greens.

Although 2023 has been nothing to write home about, he still has a solo second-place finish at Farmers and a 10th-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Given his elite ball striking, It is really no surprise that these were both long, difficult golf courses. Keegan has been vocal about vying for a Ryder Cup spot and wanting more respect from his peers after not being invited to the Delaware meeting. A motivated Keegan, showing up to a long, difficult golf course in the northeast is without question an extremely viable longshot option.

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