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Brian Kirschner previews the upcoming Charles Schwab Challenge and makes predictions and picks. The PGA expert also gives his perspective on the odds board and the two golfers he's targeting. Let's get into it!
ANALYSIS

Charles Schwab Challenge Picks and Predictions: Look for Stephan Jager and Hayden Buckley to Find Success

After a quick trip to Rochester for the PGA Championship, the PGA Tour returns to the lone star state for the Charles Schwab Challenge. We are in the midst of an extremely exciting run of golf as every week from now until the John Deere Classic, will have a strong field, with a major and two elevated events mixed in.

This week we have some of the top names on the PGA Tour teeing it up. Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, and defending champion Sam Burns will be in the field. We also have some great mid-tier options as Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood. For the week after a major, and the fact that this is not a designated event, this is a very solid field.

CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Dates: May 25 - May 28, 2023
  • Where: Colonial Country Club - Fort Worth, TX
  • Where to Watch: CBS, Golf Channel, Peacock

The Charles Schwab Challenge has been held at Colonial Country Club for over 70 years. It is one of the unique courses on tour for its length and how it has been able to withstand the test of time. As a par 70 at 7,200 yards, this is certainly not a long golf course, yet we have seen winning scores of -9, -14,-15, and -13 over the last four years. Given its extremely positional nature and blustery wind conditions, this is certainly not a course that even the best golfers in the world can overpower.

When looking at the winners of this event, it is a bit interesting. Given the short positional nature of the course, it is no surprise that Zach Johnson, Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, and Steve Stricker have all won here. However, the last two iterations of this event were won by Sam Burns and Jason Kokrak, two elite drivers of the ball with a lot of pop off the tee.

I still do believe that shorter, more accurate players hold an advantage here and have a much better chance to win this event than at a lot of setups on the PGA Tour. Accuracy OTT, the ability to excel in difficult scoring conditions, and success with your short to mid irons are key to success this week.

CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE Picks

Stephan Jager +7500 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

I am planting my flag with Stephan Jager; he is going to win on tour soon and is an extremely talented golfer. I will be betting on him every single time he tees it up for the foreseeable future. Coming off an 11th-place finish at the Byron Nelson, where he was able to gain five strokes OTT and 4.4 strokes with the putter. Stephan followed that up with a strong showing at the PGA Championship.

In only his fifth major start, he was able to finish a below-average 50th place. However, that does not tell the whole story. Stephan was sitting at T10 going into Sunday as he was +1 going into the final round. Sadly, He was not able to keep his good play up as he fired a six over 76 in the final round. We are going to blame this on a little major inexperience. Throwing out that round, Jager had a great week in his first major since 2020.

As is pretty usual with him, Stephan hit the ball incredibly but simply could not buy a putt. He ranked 17th in SG: T2G and gained over six strokes in ball striking but lost 3.3 strokes putting. Stephan ranks third in this field in GIRs gained and 16th in Good Drives Gained.

Now the putting is always going to be a concern; however, he just gained 4.4 strokes putting on similar Texas bent grass greens two weeks ago. I also trust him to win, a six-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, and he can cross the finish line if he gets into contention.

Hayden Buckley +12500 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

There seems to be some confusion in the betting market as to what Hayden Buckley’s outright price should be this week. This is where OddsChecker is such a valuable resource for looking at odds. Buckley is listed at +12500 on PointsBet and is also listed as low at +7500 on FanDuel. I will gladly take advantage of this misprice by PointsBet.

This University of Missouri graduate is playing some stellar golf right now after going through a bit of a rough stretch in the middle of the season. Buck has finished 10th at the Valero, fifth at the RBC Heritage, 43rd at Wells, and a very respectable 26th at his third-ever major championship.

As stated in previous articles, Buckley is an elite driver of the golf ball. He has not lost strokes OTT in over 30 PGA Tour starts and ranks third in this entire field in SG: OTT. He also ranks fifth in Ball striking, second in Good Drives Gained, and seventh in GIR gained. His ball-striking and recent form does not equal his outright price this week, and you should take advantage of this number on PointsBet before it is gone.

Hayden also has two top-five finishes on par 70s that require elite driving. Runner up at the Sony Open and fifth at the ZOZO. Hayden will find himself at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

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Brian Kirschner is the host of the Tap in Birdie Podcast and is a golf betting content creator from Long Island. Every week Brian has prominent guests in the industry come on his podcast and break down the upcoming PGA Tour event from a betting/DFS perspective. Brian loves nothing more than sweating first round leader and outrights bets.

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