Open Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Johnson, Henley to Thrive at Hoylake

Open Championship Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Johnson, Henley to Thrive at Hoylake

The final major of the year is upon us, and in Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, and Wyndham Clark, we have already fulfilled several storylines.

Rahm was looking to double his major tally after his 2021 US Open win at Torrey Pines, something he duly delivered on at Augusta, and then Brooks Koepka, who in his own words "choked" at Augusta on his previous start, then went and won the PGA Championship, proving these LIV Tour players have to be respected.

In Wyndham Clark we saw the first maiden major winner of the season, but will we see another one at Hoylake this week?

We are looking at the 40-1 mark and bigger for our sleepers and value picks at the 2023 Open Championship, which means we will certainly be looking at some non-major winners, even if our group is led by an experienced winner!

Check out the latest Open Championship odds, to refresh yourself on the favorites this week, and to see who you like for this event.

The sportsbooks make Rory McIlroy, who won last week in Scotland, and Scottie Scheffler the clear favorites, but is there some value lower down the board?

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 Open Championship check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 guaranteed, just for placing a $5 wager on your favorite golfer pre-event.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the 2023 Open Championship

Open Championships are usually very different prospects to regular PGA Tour events and the other majors, but if we get a softer course and calmer conditions in terms of the wind this week, then this might still be a low-scoring affair.

Tiger Woods won at -18 here in 2006, and Rory McIlroy won at -17 in 2014, and whilst this has been reduced to a Par 71, with the 10th hole now converted from a Par 5 to a Par 4, I think the scoring will be similar.

Let's look into the biggest statistical factors this week.

• SG Tee to Green - This stat should always factor into a bettor's line of thinking, as it is the easiest way to determine the shape of a golfer's all-round game, which they will need this week.
• Total Driving - For the first time in what seems like a while, Driving Accuracy is going to be important here, with Tiger Woods leading the field when primarily leaving Driver in the back, before Rory blitzed the field with his driver, averaging 320 yards and ranking 20th in accuracy. A lethal combination of the two will be required.

Open Championship Betting Trends

Here are some betting trends that may help identify an Open Champion

• 6 of the last 10 Open Champions ranked inside the Top 10 in the Official World Golf Rankings. 10 of the last 10 ranked inside the Top 40.
• Cam Smith and Collin Morikawa have broken a trend in recent years because before they won in 2021 and 2022, the last 8 Open Champions had already posted a Top 10 in this event. So 8 of the last 10 Open Champions had posted a Top 10 at the Open Championship previously.
• 8 of the last 10 Open Champions had won earlier that season. Ernie Els (2012) and Zach Johnson were the exceptions and they had both contended, posting at least a Top 3 finish on Tour.
• 9 of the last 10 Open Champions had finished inside the top 20 in at least one of their two most recent major starts.

These trends suggest we are looking for someone inside the World's Top 40, someone who has won or at least contended this season, and someone who has made a run at a recent major. It might not be easy to find that sort of player at 40-1 and bigger, but we will try our best to identify the best options!

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Open Championship?

let's see how many Open Champions over the past 10 years have been +4000 or bigger at the start of the week.

2022 - Cameron Smith (+2000)

2021 - Collin Morikawa (+4000)

2019 - Shane Lowry (+7000)

2018 - Francesco Molinari (+3300)

2017 - Jordan Spieth (+1700)

2016 - Henrik Stenson (+3300)

2015 - Zach Johnson (+11000)

2014 - Rory McIlroy (+1800)

2013 - Phil Mickelson (+2000)

2012 - Ernie Els (+4500)

It is encouraging to see that 4 of the 10 most recent Open Champions were +4000 or bigger to win this event, and even names like Francesco Molinari and Henrik Stenson would have been around that price with some sportsbooks.

The suggestion is longshots can compete, but will one come out on top at Royal Liverpool?

Let's look at our favorite bets at +4000 and bigger for the 2023 Open Championship!

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Open Championship

Here are the three picks above +4000 that I believe can contend at the 2023 Open Championship

Dustin Johnson +4000 (Get a $100 bonus when you bet on Johnson at Unibet)

Dustin Johnson just sneaks in at +4000, although his price is coming down, so make sure you act fast. I will still be betting him at +3500 here in the UK with the places we have on offer, so I don't mind dropping to that number.

I'll throw my hands up. After he struggled at the Masters and the PGA, I thought Johnson's run in the majors was done for a while, but a Top 10 Finish at the US Open, and good form since has seen me pull a complete 360.

Johnson was 5th in SG Tee to Green at LACC and he's continued to hit the ball really well when in the mix at both Valderrama and Centurion on the LIV Tour.

It is hard to truly know the full state of his game, without Strokes Gained stats on the LIV Tour, but we do know he loves this event.

Johnson first came to the fore in this event in 2011 when he entered the final round one stroke shy of Darren Clarke and in the final group. He went out of bounds in the 14th hole, and that backed up near misses at the 2010 PGA Championship and the 2010 US Open, when he was still struggling to win at the majors.

Since then, Johnson has finished inside the top 10 four times in this event, including when the 36-hole leader at St. Andrews in 2015, and should have also included when 12th here in 2014. Johnson dropped three shots coming in here in 2014 to fall to T12, but his second-round 65 was the best score of the week.

Whilst he finished poorly here in 2014 it is clear he likes the course, and he is a two-time major winner since, and now looks dedicated to winning major titles again, after what looked to be an extended break heading into the first half of the season.

40-1 is good value for an elite-level talent like Dustin Johnson.

Russell Henley +12500 (Bet up to $100 sweat-free on Henley at BetMGM)

Russell Henley is going under the radar here, which I like.

His Open Championship record is modest at best, with a T20 finish at St. Andrews in 2015 still his best effort.

Henley was inside the top 10 after 36 holes just down the road at Birkdale in 2017 though, and the way he's hitting the ball suggests to me that he can contend at any level, including on this stage.

The former Georgia Bulldog has already finished 4th at The Masters and 14th at the US Open this season, and given he's ranked inside the top 5 in SG Approach in three of his past four starts, I think he should be given more respect.

Henley has already won this season in Mexico, and he's a multiple winner in windy conditions, including at the Honda Classic, an event where there is plenty of correlation with Open Champions.

Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler finished 1-2 here in 2014, and they have both won the Honda Classic, as has Adam Scott who finished T5 here in 2014. Sergio Garcia finished T2 with Fowler at Hoylake and has a runner-up finish at PGA National as well, and the 2006 Open Championship leaderboard was also littered with Honda Classic winners and contenders, like Ernie Els, and Scott.

Most importantly though, Henley is the most accurate driver on the PGA Tour, and that should absolutely benefit him this week, which hasn't always been the case in recent Open Championships.

Brian Harman +17500 (Get a $1250 bet to use on Harman with Caesars)

Brian Harman has finished 19th and 6th in his last two Open Championships. Brian Harman finished T26 here on his Open debut in 2014. Brian Harman has finished inside the top-12 in his last three starts.

That is the very simple case for Harman, and to be honest, there doesn't need to be a whole lot more said.

Harman played brilliantly to hunt down Keegan Bradley at the Travelers Championship, and eventually finished 2nd, and he has since finished 9th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 12th last week at the Scottish Open, where he was actually 3rd going into the final round.

Harman will certainly see the Henley mould of accuracy over distance, but he seems to relish these Open conditions, and I think he can threaten the top of the leaderboard again here.