Oct 21, 7:25am | 4 min read

Daily Picks 10/21: Fall Leafs

NHL

Chris Wassel

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Chris Wassel's picks for today's NHL action

ANALYSIS

The NHL brings us a four-game slate on Monday night to examine. This will be difficult at times because of the teams playing. Look at the lessons learned from Sunday night and it proves that hockey can be a fickle sport. Let’s dive on in!

Here are Today’s NHL Picks:

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Toronto Maple Leafs

- Can Toronto build off the huge overtime win against the Boston Bruins on Saturday? Columbus will not be as easy as they appear.

This game looks like it is too easy given some of the numbers. Toronto has won four of the previous five matchups including one earlier this month – by a score of 4-1. In addition, the Maple Leafs are 6-3 when it comes to the over this season. Also, Columbus does not do well ATS at 3-5 and is just 3-3-2 on the moneyline. This sets up as a straightforward Toronto win, cover, and over three-pick parlay? Right? Not so fast. Be careful here. Columbus is just 2-6 on the over/under according to Statschecker. Like we mentioned above, the under hit in the beginning of the season. Finally, Columbus games average 1.8 goals less than Toronto games do when it comes to goals combined. The direction here is twofold. – the spread plus the under.

1u – Under 6.5 Total Goals @ -110

Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 goals @ +135

Vegas Golden Knights @ Philadelphia Flyers

- The home team has lost all four matchups in the short history of this series. Can Philadelphia break through on Monday night? History says not likely.

Philadelphia did something few expected over the weekend. They lost at home to the Dallas Stars – a team that had won just once all season. The Flyers are 2-1 at home this year but one of those games was played overseas. Philadelphia is 0-3-1 since they beat New Jersey on October 9th. Philadelphia has seen the under connect four out of six times and the Flyers have covered at the same rate. In contrast, Vegas Is 6-3 on the moneyline but just 4-5 on the over. Yet, Vegas is 5-4 ATS. It is a mass of contradictions that must be sorted through. The under has hit in Philadelphia’s seven of their last eight home games on Mondays. Riding the under is our strategy here with a lean on the Vegas moneyline if it comes in around -115 or better.

1u – Under 6.5 Total Goals @ -133

Colorado Avalanche @ St. Louis Blues

- St. Louis tries to rebound after an ugly 5-2 home loss to the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday while Colorado is rolling after thumping Tampa Bay 6-2 in Tampa.

The teams historically play to the under and so does Colorado. Statschecker notes that the under hit in three of the four games last year and Colorado’s last six games against the Central Division have done the same. One odd number is that St. Louis has scored at least three goals in each of the previous four meetings. Colorado is 7-0-1 on the moneyline, 6-2 on the over, and 7-1 against the spread. When does that give even a little? We will take yet another under here but opt for a higher number than the typical to increase chances of a hit.

1u -- Under 6.5 Total Goals @ -133

Ottawa Senators @ Dallas Stars

- The under has connected in three of the last four meetings while Dallas has lost three out of four to Ottawa.

This game pits the bad versus the even worse. Dallas is 2-7-1 while Ottawa is 1-5-1. The under has hit in four of Ottawa’s seven games while it has converted in seven of Dallas’ ten contests. Dallas has not won a single home game yet and Ottawa has not won one road contest. Dallas did finally break through and win on the road in Philadelphia over the weekend. Ottawa’s average margin of loss is two goals per contest. The prevailing process is to trust the momentum is on the side of Dallas.