New York Islanders vs Philadelphia Flyers Predictions
Friday’s NHL slate consisted of two game sevens. Both of those games were won by the team that blew a 3-1 series lead.
The New York Islanders look to make it 3 for 3 on Saturday night.
If we’re being completely honest, there shouldn’t be a game seven in this series. The Philadelphia Flyers did not deserve to win Game Six, but they did, and here we are. The shots through regulation time were 42-17 in favor of the New York Islanders and ended 53-31 for the game.
The difference in the contest was simple; goaltending. Semyon Varlamov could not make a save for his team, while Carter Hart kept the Flyers in the game. The question amongst Islanders fans heading into game seven is whether Varlamov’s performance will get him stapled to the bench. Thomas Greiss was great in the Isles game Four victory. Varlamov has looked shaky at times in this series.
Barry Trotz has a tough decision to make. If I had to guess, Trotz will dance with the goalie that brought him here. Do not be surprised if Varlamov starts but has an extremely short leash.
Here’s two contradicting facts for you. Carter Hart is the main reason why there will be a Game Seven in this series. The New York Islanders are yet to score less than three goals in a game in this series.
What does this tell us? It tells us that the Islanders have dominated most of this series. Game Six was no exception. The Islanders are generating over 14 high danger chances per 60 minutes in this series at 5on5. They’re allowing only 9.6. The Islanders have nearly 54% of the expected goals through six games.
Game Six had the Islanders concede only 9 high danger chances at 5on5. Remember, this game went deep into the second overtime, so they played nearly 5 periods. Philadelphia was averaging less than two high danger chances per period. The fact they beat Varlamov so often is borderline criminal.
Vegas is noticing the disparity on the ice and they aren’t being fooled by the results of the games. The Islanders are near -140 favorites on most sites. This is the highest they’ve been in this series. Sure, I’m sure some of this is due to the injuries Philadelphia is dealing with amongst it’s guys like Sean Couturier and Joel Farabee. But I’m sure most of it is in reaction to the fact that the Islanders have been the better team through almost every game.
Speaking of injuries, Mat Barzal avoided disaster and has a nasty cut near his eye. However, it didn’t affect him at all in Game Six. Barzal played his best game of the postseason, scoring a beautiful goal to give the Islanders a lead late in the second period. When Barzal and his linemates, Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle were on the ice together, the Islanders had nearly 92% of the expected goals. The high danger chances were 8-0 when this trio was on the ice. They attempted to single-handedly will New York to victory but couldn’t.
-140 is not a price I’m willing to lay on the Islanders in this game.
However, that doesn’t mean I’m not going to back them in some way.
I’m a big believer in following a streak until it’s over. Don’t try and pick the exact time to jump off the money train. Just keep collecting until the gravy train runs out.
Like I mentioned earlier, the Islanders have scored at least three goals in every game this series, including Game Six where I recommended this same exact bet which cashed.
Bet the Isles to score at least three. For my sake, hopefully its enough to get them the win this time.
PICK:: NY Islanders Team Total Over 2.5 (-124)