Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche Prediction: Which Team Will Continue Their Winning Ways?

Two red-hot squads meet in Nashville on Tuesday night. Who will come out with the two points? Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche prediction and pick from handicapper Jason Yamaguchi.
Jason Yamaguchi |
Tue, January 11, 9:30 AM EST | 4 min read
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Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche Prediction: Which Team Will Continue Their Winning Ways?

Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: Tuesday, January 11

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

Puck Line: Avalanche -1 (+130)

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Predators vs. Avalanche Puck Line

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Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche Prediction

Fresh off of a comeback victory over the visiting Kraken, the Avalanche (22-8-2) will travel to Nashville to face the Predators on Tuesday night. With the win against Seattle, Colorado extended their winning streak to five games and claimed sole possession of the third playoff spot in the Central division. They hold four games in hand over the two teams sitting ahead of them and trail the division-leading Predators by just two points. The Avalanche will look to continue their top form and leapfrog into first with a win in this spot.

The Predators (23-11-2), however, deserve plenty of credit for their recent play. They have 11 wins in their last 13 games, including a 5-2 victory over the Avalanche. Three of those wins came on their road trip last week, the most impressive of which was a 3-2 victory over the Pacific-leading Golden Knights. For Nashville, two key factors of late have been outstanding special teams play and strong goaltending. They will look to lean on both against the Avalanche.

Nashville's power play, specifically, could provide a significant edge here. The unit ranks 5th in the NHL with a conversion rate of 26.4%; by contrast, Colorado's penalty kill ranks 28th with a kill rate of just 72.6%. The Avalanche do have a strong power play unit — one that ranks 8th by virtue of converting 24% of their chances — but the Predators hold an equally strong penalty kill (also ranks 8th).

In terms of goaltending, the Predators have a clear advantage. Juuse Saros, whose 16.6 goals saved above expected rank third in the NHL, is expected to get the nod. His emergence as a Vezina contender has buoyed Nashville to their current spot in the standings. On the other side of the ice, Darcy Kuemper should start for Colorado. He has allowed 1.1 more goals than expected this season, a subpar mark given the price Colorado paid to acquire him.

Each of these teams is near the top of the league in terms of expected goals share. At even strength, the Avalanche rank 8th in the NHL with an expected goals share of 53.14%; the Predators trail closely behind in 10th with a share of 52.14%. In other words, both teams tend to control their games, generating more offense than their opponents.

At this point in the season, these teams are fairly well-matched. Each of them is missing a key forward due to COVID—Gabriel Landeskog for Colorado, Filip Forsberg for Nashville. The Avalanche have better skaters on paper, but their inferior goaltending offsets that to some extent. Colorado is also at a disadvantage due to rest—they were forced to fly into Nashville after their Monday night win, while the Predators have been resting at home for two days. I've got this game at close to a pk, which is why this line is a bit surprising to me. Bet the Predators down to +115.

Predators vs. Avalanche Pick

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Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.

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