Florida Panthers vs. New York Rangers Prediction: Is There Value on the Under?
Florida Panthers vs. New York Rangers Prediction: Is There Value on the Under?
The Florida Panthers (32-9-5) will travel to New York to face the Rangers on Tuesday night, a game that will be the final outing for both squads before the planned two-week Olympic break. Florida has won 14 of their last 17 games, a run that has propelled them to the top spot in the NHL with 69 points.
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Florida Panthers vs. New York Rangers Prediction
The Rangers (29-13-4) have seen their unsustainable reliance on special teams start to catch up to them over the last couple of weeks. They have dropped three of their last six games, including two losses to divisional opponents. However, they still sit in second place in the Metropolitan Division, leading the third-place Penguins by one point.
At even strength, the comparison between these two teams is no contest. The Panthers have a stellar expected goals share of 55.3%, good for fourth in the NHL. Essentially, they tend to generate significantly more offense than their opponents at 5v5. The Rangers sit at the other end of the spectrum—their 5v5 xGF% is currently at 46.33%, which ranks 27th in the league.
The likely outcome of this discrepancy is that the Rangers will struggle to generate offense at even strength. Their power play remains dangerous, but the unit will be missing their quarterback—Adam Fox will sit out a third straight game with an upper body injury. Fox leads all NHL defensemen with 47 points, 21 of which have come on the man-advantage. His absence will hurt New York's ability to produce offense, but the power play is still solid. If the Panthers can stay out of the box, the Rangers will be hard-pressed to put up goals here.
On the other side, New York's ability to limit Florida's offensive output will hinge on their goaltender, as it has all season. Igor Shesterkin leads the entire NHL with 23.6 goals saved above expected—as it stands, he is the Vezina frontrunner. Shesterkin has, to a large extent, carried the Rangers this season. He has been so good that I think he will be able to minimize Florida's damage. They are liable to put up five or more goals on any given night—their 4.04 goals per game rank second in the NHL—but Shesterkin should be equal to the task. The total for this game is set at 6.5, which leads me to believe that there is value on the under.
Florida Panthers vs. New York Rangers Line Movement
Florida Panthers vs. New York Rangers Pick
- Under 6.5 goals (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)