Winnipeg Jets vs. Minnesota Wild Prediction: Look for the Wild to Keep Rolling
Winnipeg Jets vs. Minnesota Wild Prediction: Look for the Wild to Keep Rolling
The NHL returned from the All-Star break on Monday with two games. One of them, an entertaining clash between the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes that ended in a 4-3 overtime victory for Toronto, saw us cash the over despite the fact that only one goal was scored in the game's first 36 minutes. Let's try to keep that momentum going on Tuesday, which has a nice seven-game slate to consider. Here are two of my bets for the day.
Jets vs. Wild Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
Date: Tuesday, February 8
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Puck Line: Wild -1 (+135)
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Jets vs. Wild Puck Line
Winnipeg Jets vs. Minnesota Wild Prediction
The Minnesota Wild (28-10-3) hit the break on an absolute tear, having won nine of their last 10. The run pushed the Wild into third place in the Central Division, and they hold five games in hand over the second-place Predators (whom they trail by one point). As they settle back in and enter the final six weeks before the trade deadline, they'll look to keep moving up in the playoff picture.
The Winnipeg Jets (18-17-7) are a team trending in the opposite direction. They have lost seven of their last eight, including an embarrassing 3-1 loss to the basement-dwelling Flyers right before the break. Winnipeg's season is dangerously close to being effectively over—they trail the Flames for the final wildcard spot by nine points, and need to turn their momentum around before it's too late.
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When comparing the performances of these two squads at even strength, it's no contest. Minnesota has the ninth best expected goals share in the league at 52.37%; Winnipeg trails in 20th with a share of 48.93%. Thus, it comes as no surprise that the Wild have a goal differential 49 goals higher than the Jets. Minnesota is much better at generating offense while also minimizing the opponent's chances, a fact substantiated by both the advanced statistics and the simpler ones.
The Jets are a team in free-fall. Since mid-January, they've been consistently outchanced by their opposition, night in and night out. I don't expect that to reverse course here, despite the fact that they're at home and rested. It won't help that Winnipeg is without multiple core pieces—Pierre-Luc Dubois and Neal Pionk landed on the COVID-19 list Monday, and Nikolaj Ehlers remains on long-term injured reserve with a knee injury. This line feels a bit short to me—bet the Wild down to -150 on the moneyline.
I also really like the Wild team total over in this spot. Minnesota has one of the NHL's best offenses—they rank third in the league with 3.83 goals scored per game. The offense has been especially potent over this 10 game stretch, as they've scored four or more goals in six of the nine wins. In each of the other four games (three wins, one shootout loss), they scored three goals. On the other side, the Jets have allowed three or more goals in seven of their last eight. I think an offensive explosion from the Wild is relatively likely here, enough so that I love taking this team-total at plus money.
Winnipeg Jets vs. Minnesota Wild Picks
- Wild ML (-135) (Bet $135 to Win $100)
- Wild TT O3.5 (+113) (Bet $100 to Win $113)
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