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The Seattle Kraken will host the New York Islanders on Tuesday night. NHL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi brings us his best bet for the matchup.

New York Islanders vs. Seattle Kraken Prediction: Keep Fading the Kraken

The Flames came through for us on Monday, covering the puckline with an empty netter at the very end. Moving on to Tuesday, there are six games to consider. One in particular—the matchup between the Kraken and the Islanders—has a betting opportunity on which I'd like to capitalize. Let's dive in.

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New York Islanders vs Seattle Kraken Prediction

The New York Islanders (18-20-7) have had an extremely disappointing season. They came into the year with cup expectations following two consecutive conference final losses, but are currently 19 points out of a playoff spot. New York isn't in the best form, either—they've lost four of their last five. However, despite losing on Sunday in a shootout to the Canadiens, the Islanders largely dominated the game. They'll look to replicate that level of play here against Seattle.

The Kraken (16-32-4) have arguably underperformed expectations by an even greater margin than the Islanders have. Many predicted that Seattle would challenge for a playoff spot, yet they sit second from last in the Western Conference. They come into this game on a four-game losing streak, and will be on the second leg of a back-to-back after a 5-2 loss in Vancouver Monday night.

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New York will have a massive edge in goal against Seattle. It is unclear whether Ilya Sorokin or Semyon Varlamov will start for the road team, but both of them are capable options. On the other side, Philipp Grubauer is expected to get the nod. He has allowed a whopping 26.8 more goals than expected this season, which is 12.8 more than any other goaltender in the league. Grubauer deserves the lion's share of the blame for Seattle's struggles this season, and is a prime candidate to let them down again tonight.

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The Islanders are a team whose underlying numbers are better than their results. This has been especially true as of late—they've dominated their opponents for three straight games in terms of expected goals, yet have just one win to show for their efforts. This same principle appears when analyzing their year-long results; they have an expected goals share at 5v5 of 49.48%, which ranks 17th in the NHL. However, they rank 24th in terms of points percentage. Is this discrepancy due to unlucky variance or poor shooting? The answer is probably a combination of the two, but there exists no better remedy for a cold streak of shooting than a matchup with the worst goaltender in the league.

The Kraken are the inferior team at even strength, on special teams, and in goal. They will also be tired following the beatdown by the Canucks, a game in which they surrendered 46 shots on goal. There may come a spot to buy low on them in the near future, but this is not it. The books are giving Seattle too much credit here, and I'll happily take the Islanders at this number. Bet New York on the moneyline down to -160. I also think their team total is worth a sprinkle, given the charitable odds.

New York Islanders vs Seattle Kraken Line Movement

New York Islanders vs Seattle Kraken Pick

Article Author


Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.


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