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The New York Islanders will pay a visit to the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday night. NHL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi offers his best bet for the game.

Anaheim Ducks vs. New York Islanders Prediction: Expect a Fair Amount of Scoring

Following a stunning Saturday of NHL action that featured multiple shocking upsets, an outdoor game, and a 10-7 final score, Sunday will provide us with eight more games to watch. One of them will see the Islanders wrap up their four-game road trip in Anaheim with a matchup against the Ducks. This game holds my favorite bet of the day, so let's dive in.

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Anaheim Ducks vs. New York Islanders Prediction

The Islanders (19-21-8) are coming into this game on a cold streak, having lost six of their last eight. Over the course of those six losses, they conceded 26 goals for an average of 4.33/game. New York badly needs two points here, as they trail the Capitals for the final wildcard spot by 19 points (but with games in hand).

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The Ducks (25-20-9) are in a better spot, but only just. They have been one of the pleasant surprises of the NHL season; despite being expected to contend for the top pick in the draft, they've been as high as first place in the Pacific division. More recently, however, they've slipped, losing five of their last seven and falling out of the playoffs altogether. Over those seven games, Anaheim allowed 30 goals (average of 4.29/game).

The goaltending matchup is even, with both sides starting capable yet unspectacular netminders. For the Ducks, John Gibson is expected to go after being yanked in his last outing. He has saved 0.03 more goals than expected this season, which means he has performed almost exactly as an average goalie—faced with his workload—would. On the other side, Ilya Sorokin will start for the Islanders. He has saved 0.9 goals above expected, which is effectively equal to Gibson's total. Both of these goaltenders are solid, but neither scares me away from this over.

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The total for this game is relatively deflated, and it's easy to see why. The Islanders rank 29th in the league with just 2.5 goals per game this season, which is the primary reason that the total has gone under in 27 of their 48 games. The Ducks are a bit better, with 2.91 goals per game, but don't score enough to be considered an offensive powerhouse. Still, I think it's worth bucking the trend here. The over has hit in eight of New York's last 14 due to their inability to keep the puck out of their own net, a pattern that will likely continue. The Islanders will be tired on the second leg of a back-to-back, and I think the Ducks will put up a fairly high number as a result. If the Isles can chip in with a couple goals of their own, this total will go over with ease.

Anaheim Ducks vs New York Islanders Line Movement

Anaheim Ducks vs New York Islanders Pick

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Article Author


Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.


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