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The Ottawa Senators travel from Nashville to Detroit to take on the Red Wings. Ben Rajavuori breaks down the game.

Detroit Red Wings vs. Ottawa Senators Prediction: Back the Red Wings at Home

The Senators travel from Nashville to Detroit to take on the Red Wings in a game with no implications for either team. Neither team has a chance to make the playoffs and will cruise through April playing for pride rather than a playoff position. You can catch the game at 7:30 p.m. EST on Bally Sports Detroit. The Red Wings are the slight favorite in this matchup and sit around -115 on the Moneyline for tonight. Can the Red Wings take care of business at home and snap a four-game losing streak?

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Detroit Red Wings vs. Ottawa Senators Prediction

The Red Wings and Senators are both terrible, don't get me wrong, but the Red Wings have at least shown some life this season, especially at home. The Red Wings are actually a respectable 17-12-5 at home. It's the road where they have been dead in the water, where they are 9-20-2. The Red Wings have also performed well under high expectations this season. They have only been a favorite in fourteen games this year, but they are 11-3 in this spot, including an impressive 9-2 record as a favorite at home.

They have been playing tough at home, taking the Rangers to overtime in their last game and taking the Lightning to overtime in the previous home game. In the home game before that, they beat the Flyers 6-3. In fact, The Red Wings haven't lost in regulation at home since March 8th, and they've played some of the league's toughest teams. There must be something in the air at Little Caesars Arena. A few pucks haven't gone their way in overtime, but they are due for some progression a home, and what better team to play at this time than the Senators.

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Ottawa has had a tough season and is one of the league's worst teams. Tonight, they will be trying out their new goaltender, Mads Sogaard. The Denmark native has spent some time in the AHL, where he went 16-13 with a 2.87 goals allowed average. This will be his first NHL game ever, and it happens to also be on the road, which doesn't help. The Senators are 26th in the league in shots allowed per game, so Sogaard will likely see plenty of action in his debut.

The Red Wings put up 26 shots against the Rangers last time out and 27 against the Lightning in the home game before that. Those are two of the league's top defenses, but the Wings have kept the netminders busy despite overtime losses. The Senators know their season is over and as a result, I think they are trying out options for the future. This is smart but also gives us an opportunity to fade a goaltender making his NHL debut on the road against a team that has played their best hockey on their home ice.

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This game comes down to the situational spot for me. We are catching the Red Wings in a stretch of bad luck, where some progression is due. Tough overtime losses against top-level competition and a chance to improve their 11-3 record as a favorite and 9-2 at home as a favorite. Nedeljkovic hasn't been anything special, but he's a solid keeper on his own ice, and he is going head-to-head with a young goalie making his NHL debut.

The Senators haven't had any success on the road this season, and with neither team having anything to play for, I will back the team that at least wants to give their fans a win in front of their own crowd. There is value on this Red Wings team tonight, and I love them to take care of business at home. Take Detroit as the slight favorite.

Detroit Red Wings vs. Ottawa Senators Pick

Pick: Detroit Red Wings ML (-115) (Bet $115 to Win $100)

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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