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NHL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi breaks down his +400 same-game parlay at DraftKings for Monday's showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Same-Game Parlay: Tail this +400 Same-Game Parlay at DraftKings

On Monday night, the Tampa Bay Lightning will host the Maple Leafs in a game that may well be a preview of a first-round playoff series. The clubs are tied for second place in the Atlantic Division, as both are currently sitting on 93 points. The Bruins trail by just two points, but would finish in a wildcard if the season ended now. With just over three weeks remaining in the regular season, the games are gaining importance for every team in or near a playoff spot. This one is no different.

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Same-Game Parlay

The betting angle that we're going to consider here is the same-game parlay. With these types of parlays, it's ideal to correlate the legs of your bet in order to offset the increased juice that the sportsbooks take. With this bet, the scenario is that the game has less scoring than many are predicting. Both teams boast elite offenses, but they are also rock-solid defensively.

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Leg 1: Under 6.5 Total Goals

The goals total, unilaterally set at 6.5, seems a bit high. This leg is based on the idea that the defenses and goaltending will be enough to subdue these two potent offenses. This season, Toronto has allowed the sixth least expected goals per 60 at even strength, while Tampa has allowed the seventh least. Also, since acquiring defenseman Mark Giordano at the deadline, Toronto's defense has further improved. Their goaltending has been an issue, however, and that is the one factor that may ruin this leg. It is unlikely to be a problem on the other side, as Andrei Vasilevskiy is the probable starter for Tampa Bay. He has saved 26.1 goals above expected this season, a total that ranks third among all NHL starters.

Leg 2: Under 1.5 Goals - First Period

This outcome is correlated with the first leg, which is the main reason that it's worth a look. If there are fewer than two goals scored in the first period, it is likely that the overall total will fall under 6.5 goals. The odds for the first period under, at +130, seem inflated given the quality of both defenses. As such, I feel comfortable adding it even though there is a solid chance that two or more goals are scored in the first. It isn't possible to hit every same-game parlay, and some risk-taking is required.

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Leg 3: Lightning ML

The Bolts are rightfully favored in this spot for a few reasons. For starters, they are much better at home than away, as are the Leafs. The game, as mentioned before, is in Tampa Bay. The Lightning are also healthier; their full lineup is essentially intact, while the Leafs could be missing William Nylander along with Jake Muzzin and Rasmus Sandin. Both teams have been great at even strength, but Tampa has a much better goaltender. The Leafs have better special teams, but that's the only legitimate edge they have in this matchup. This bet is worth adding to the parlay because Toronto's path to a win is to turn this into a track meet and outscore Tampa, which would mean that one or both of the other legs would likely lose as well. If the opposite outcome occurs, it's reasonably likely that all three legs hit.

Want to build your own parlay? Check out OddsChecker's parlay calculator to see what kind of odds your parlay will net!

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Same-Game Parlay Picks

Pick: 3-leg Same-Game Parlay (+400) (Bet $100 to Win $400)

  • Under 6.5 Total Goals
  • Under 1.5 First Period Goals
  • Lightning ML

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Article Author


Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.


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