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NHL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi lays out his +390 same-game parlay for Thursday's game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Dallas Stars.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars Same-Game Parlay: Tail this +390 SGP at DraftKings

On Thursday night, the Maple Leafs will travel to Dallas to face the Stars in a meeting between two teams that are currently in playoff positions. It is an extremely meaningful game for both—the Maple Leafs are just three points ahead of fourth-place in the Atlantic, while the Stars hold the West's final wild card spot by a singular point.

As always with same-game parlays, the goal is to correlate the respective legs with one another as strongly as possible. Usually, that means honing in on a specific scenario that one thinks is likely to play out and picking legs for the parlay that aligns around that scenario. For this game, I'm predicting a high-scoring affair that results in a Toronto victory. The Maple Leafs should come out hard after blowing a four-goal lead in their last outing, a game that ended 7-6 in favor of the Panthers.

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars Same-Game Parlay Breakdown

Leg 1: Maple Leafs ML

The Maple Leafs are one of the best teams in the league. They have the fifth-best 5v5 expected goals share in the NHL at 55.04%, stellar special teams, and the Hart-favorite in Auston Matthews. The Stars have been playing solid, if inconsistent, hockey of late, but they are simply outclassed in this spot.

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Leg 2: Maple Leafs First Period ML

This leg is officially listed on DraftKings as "first-period puck line: -0.5", which just means that they must be leading at the end of the first period. The scenario, as previously mentioned, is that Toronto comes out firing on all cylinders as a response to their shocking loss on Tuesday. If that occurs, it seems relatively likely that they will score 1-2 goals in the first period, which would make it highly probable that the leg cashes.

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Leg 3: Over 6.5 Total Goals

This part should come as no surprise, given all the factors that have already been laid out. One other thing of note is that the Leafs have recently suffered from major struggles in goal. Ideally, this will give the Stars the ability to chip in two or three goals, making it that much easier to cross the 6.5 goal threshold. The over has cashed in Toronto's last six games, a stretch over which the average goals scored per game was 9.5(!). The odds are in our favor here.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars Same-Game Parlay

Pick: 3-Leg Same-Game Parlay (+390) (Bet $100 to Win $390)

  • Maple Leafs ML
  • Maple Leafs First Period ML
  • Over 6.5 Total Goals

Want to build your own parlay? Check out OddsChecker's parlay calculator to see what kind of odds your parlay will net!

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Article Author


Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.


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