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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens same game parlay pick and prediction from DraftKings. NHL handicapper Jason Yamaguchi explains his same-game parlay for Saturday's game between the Maple Leafs and the Canadiens.
ANALYSIS

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens Same-Game Parlay: Tail this +450 Play at DraftKings

On Saturday, the Maple Leafs will be returning home from a four-game road trip, on which they went 3-0-1, to host the Canadiens. I've put together a same-game parlay for the game, one that I think has a solid chance of hitting. The idea with SGPs, generally, is to correlate the parlay's legs with one another. That typically means focusing on a scenario that one thinks is likely to play out, and picking legs that align around that scenario. In this case, we're looking for a dominant performance from Toronto's offense, where one particular player scores en route to a win.

Leg 1: Maple Leafs -1.5

Based on the way that these teams are trending, it seems like a relaxing Leafs win could be in the cards. It's far from a sure thing, but they are a much better team than the Canadiens in every aspect of the sport. Expect Toronto's offense to feast against one of the worst defenses in the league, which leads me to the second leg...

Leg 2: Over 6.5 Total Goals

For this to hit along with the first leg, it will be necessary for the Leafs to contribute the bulk of the scoring. Luckily, this is a perfect storm for that type of outcome—Toronto's offense ranks second in the NHL with 3.83 goals scored per game this season, and they will be facing the worst defense in the league (3.8 goals allowed per game). Special teams have factored into where these averages rank; the Leafs have the NHL's best power play, while the Canadiens have the fourth worst penalty kill. Montreal has taken the fifth most penalties per game this season, so Toronto's ability to score on the power play may prove instrumental in pushing this total over 6.5.

Leg 3: William Nylander Anytime Goalscorer

This is the leg with the longest odds by a decent margin, but it has great value. Nylander has really picked up his play over the last couple of weeks—he has four goals and four assists in his last four games. The fact that the Leafs are poised to explode on offense only adds to the potential for Nylander to cash in. Matthews is the obvious choice for an anytime goalscorer prop, but his odds are shot due to his outstanding play of late. As difficult as it is to lay off, the value is elsewhere, with the tier of forwards below Matthews on the Leafs' roster.

Pick: 3-leg Same-Game Parlay @ +450 (Bet $100 to win $450)

  • Maple Leafs -1.5
  • Over 6.5 Total Goals
  • William Nylander Anytime Goalscorer

Article Author

NHLNFLMLB

Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.

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