Boston Bruins vs. Florida Panthers Prediction: Was Florida's Last Game a Fluke?
Boston Bruins vs. Florida Panthers Prediction: Was Florida's Last Game a Fluke?
In yet another glaring example of the NHL's inability to balance their schedule, there will be 13 games on Tuesday following a day with just one. All eight playoff teams from the Eastern Conference will be in action, including a couple of potential playoff previews between them. One of those is a matchup that features two of the league's best teams—the Panthers and the Bruins. Let's break this game down to see where the value lies.
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Boston Bruins vs. Florida Panthers Prediction
Prior to Sunday's game against the Lightning, the Panthers (57-16-6) had been riding a 13-game winning streak. Over the course of the streak, Florida repeatedly dismantled their opponents, generating high-quality offense on a nightly basis while conceding few chances at the other end. This suggests that Sunday's loss—one where they lost the expected goals battle for the first time in weeks—is nothing more than a minor bump in the road. The Panthers, who have clinched first place in the East, remain arguably the league's top team, and that shouldn't be forgotten after one subpar performance.
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Boston, however, cannot be overlooked. The Bruins (49-25-5) have won four of their last five games, including three victories against playoff teams. They especially stepped up their game over the last two, an improvement that coincided with the return of David Pastrnak and Hampus Lindholm from injured reserve. Regardless of the outcome of their next three games, Boston will likely remain in a wildcard spot, setting up a first-round matchup with Carolina.
The Panthers have a lethal power play, one that has scored five goals in their last four games. The unit ranks seventh in the league with a conversion rate of 24.2%, an edge that will serve them well as they head into the postseason. The Bruins have a solid penalty kill (81.5% kill rate), but they take the fourth-most penalties per game in the NHL. If they continue that trend against the Panthers on Tuesday, it could spell trouble for them.
Florida also holds an edge in goal. Sergei Bobrovsky has enjoyed a resurgent year following a horrendous 2020-21 campaign; he is one of the primary reasons that the Panthers are first in the league with 120 points. Bobrovsky, the probable starter on Tuesday, has tallied 22.2 goals saved above expected to this point, a mark that ranks fourth among all NHL starters. On the other side, Bruins have received solid—but unspectacular—goaltending by splitting time between Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark. Both are dependable, but neither is better than Bobrovsky.
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These teams, overall, are fairly well-matched. Both are elite at even strength—in fact, they rank first (Florida) and second in terms of expected goals share at 5v5 this season. Both have solid special teams, although the Panthers have a much better (and hotter) power play. Combining that with their advantage in goal, they should be favored by a bit more than their current price. It is possible that they are being overly discounted due to their last game. That is an inefficiency on which we can capitalize—bet the Panthers down to -120 on the moneyline.
Boston Bruins vs. Florida Panthers Pick
Pick: Panthers ML (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)