Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Prediction: Can We Count on Andrei Vasilevskiy to Bounce Back?

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Prediction: Can We Count on Andrei Vasilevskiy to Bounce Back?

Game three of the Stanley Cup finals will be underway tonight from Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay starting at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Lightning find themselves down 0-2 once again and desperately need a better performance from star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy tonight to avoid a 0-3 series deficit. The Avalanche outscored the Lightning 11-3 over the first two games at home, but now it is the Lightning who have the last line change advantage on home ice. Can the Lightning make it a series? Or will we finally have a new champion?

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Game 3 Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: June 20, 2022

Time: 8:00 pm ET

Where to Watch: ABC, ESPN+

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Lightning vs. Avalanche Game 3 Total Movement

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Game 3 Prediction

The Lightning find themselves in a familiar position. The Lightning were down 0-2 after the first two games of the series against the Rangers but then found a new spark that led them to four straight victories, taking the series 4-2. The Lightning as a team have been much stronger performers at home. The Lightning are 7-1 at home in the postseason while only allowing two goals per game on average. Conversely, on the road, the Lightning have been much worse, going 5-6 with 36 goals allowed and 3.27 goals against per game. The Lightning has played much better defense at home, starting with Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has looked uncharacteristically horrible over the first two games of the series. Vasilevskiy allowed four goals in game one on 34 shots for a %.895 save percentage. Game two was even worse, with Vasilevskiy allowing 7 goals on only 23 shot attempts for a %.767 save percentage. That's 11 goals allowed in the series on 57 shots; just a %.807 save percentage over the first two games. This is not the norm for Andrei, but I expect a bounce-back effort in game three, considering Andrei has played much better at home throughout his career. In the 2021-2022 season, Vasilevskiy was 20-8 at home with a 2.23 GAA compared to 19-10 on the road with a 2.77 GAA. I expect a much better effort from the netminder and the defense as a whole at home after an embarrassing 0-7 loss.

The Avalanche has made it to the finals behind quick speed and putting up shots after shots. The Avalanche are 4th in the league in shots on goal per game at 35. The Avalanche had a goalie scare in the playoffs with an injury to Darcy Kuemper, sidelining him for a few games, but he has been back in the net, and he has been excellent. Kuemper scored a shutout in game two after blanking the Lightning in the 7-0 victory. The Avalanche defense also helped him, only allowing 16 shots on goal, but Kuemper is looking dominant nonetheless.

The Avalanche were unstoppable at home this season. The Avalanche were 32-5-4 at home compared to 24-14-3 on the road. Their offense seemed to score less on the road, and they didn't quite have the same pop in their play, which isn't unusual but is worth noting for this game. The Avalanche averaged 4.14 goals at home in 41 games, compared to 3.36 goals per game in 41 games on the road.

After two seven-goal games, I expect a slower start in game three. Andrei Vasilevskiy is much better at home, and the Avalanche offense has scored much less on the road. Expect a more defensive start to game three and for a goaltender battle to keep this a low-scoring, tight game. I'm not sure if the Lightning will win, but I do think we see less than two goals in the first period.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Game 3 Pick

• 1st Period Under 1.5 (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)

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