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Stanley Cup Final odds, picks, and predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Wednesday, June 22. Handicapper Ben Rajavuori gives his best NHL betting picks for Stanley Cup Final Game 4.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Picks and Predictions: Top Props for Stanley Cup Final Game 4

The Lightning reminded everyone that they are the back-to-back champions in the game three victory over the Avalanche in a dominant 6-2 win. Darcy Kuemper was pulled after 31 minutes after conceding five goals on 22 shots and was overwhelmed by the Tampa attack. The Lightning are now staring down the barrel of a new series, with a victory tonight tying the series at 2-2 and settling the worry that may have crept into Lightning fans' heads. For game four tonight, I have some of my favorite prop plays on the game. For the side, I like the Lightning, but not quite enough to make it an official play. Let's dive into the props.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 4 Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: June 22, 2022

Time: 8:00 pm ET

Where to Watch: ABC, ESPN+

Click here for the best odds on Lightning vs. Avalanche Game 4

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Lightning vs. Avalanche Game 4 Line Movement

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche Game 4 Props

Darcy Kuemper Over 26.5 Saves (-108) (Bet $108 to Win $100)

The Lightning won game three by simply attacking the net. Kuemper was flustered early and simply couldn't bounce back. Kuemper faced something in game three that he was not used to, a lot of shots on net. The Avalanche defense has done a great job of limiting shots on goal from opposing teams. When I say "a lot," I mean 22 shots on goal in 31 minutes. The strategy for the lightning was clear. The Lightning put up .7 shots per minute on Kuemper, putting up five goals before he was pulled. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lightning come out with the same pressure in game four, looking for the same result.

The Lightning have shot more at home in general in these playoffs. The Lightning have averaged 34 shots at home per game in the postseason, whereas they have only averaged 29 on the road. In the last four head-to-head matches between the Avalanche and Lightning in Tampa, the goalie has hit O26.5 in three of the four. The miss would be because Kuemper was pulled in the most recent outing, but he was surely on pace for O26.5. I expect a bounce back from Kuemper in this game, and while he might still give up 3-4 goals, I believe he will hit over 26.5 saves with the pressure increasing from the Tampa Bay offense.

Bet $5, Get $100 Guaranteed When Betting on the NHL Playoffs

Nathan MacKinnon to Score (+164) (Bet $100 to Win $164)

This is a pick solely on expected progression. Nathan Mackinnon was the second-highest scorer on the Avalanche with 32 goals despite playing only 65 games. In the postseason, he has kept the scoring up, scoring 11 goals in 17 total games, which is tied for most on the team. However, MacKinnon has failed to find the back of the net in this series. It's not like he hasn't been trying either. MacKinnon has a combined 32 shot attempts over the three games this series without a single goal. MacKinnon is also one of the top looks for shooters in power-play opportunities, which is a unit that has dominated the 2022 postseason. The Avalanche's man-advantage has been one of the best in the NHL, and I wouldn't be surprised if MacKinnon put one in up a man tonight. How likely is it that MacKinnon goes four scoreless games with the number of shots he's put up? With Vasilevskiy in net, maybe high, but I like the odds in a buy-low spot for MacKinnon.

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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