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NHL bettor Jason Yamaguchi outlines his best parlay bet for Tuesday's NHL slate. Don't miss out and tail this expert's Penguins vs. Canadiens and Devils vs. Lightning best bet!
ANALYSIS

NHL Parlay Picks for Tuesday: Building Around Penguins vs. Canadiens, Devils vs. Lightning

Tuesday's NHL slate brings us 12 games to consider, most of which hold some form of meaning with respect to the playoff picture. At this point in the season, it's important to remain cautious before firing away on a high number of bets — betting edges can diminish as the season goes on. Luckily, with a slate this big, we can selectively pick and choose to our liking — here are the two games that I believe hold the most value on the moneyline.

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NHL Parlay for Tuesday

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Leg One: Penguins ML

The Penguins and the Canadiens present one of the biggest mismatches of the season, with a playoff contender in good form hosting a team on a seven-game losing streak. The correct price on this game is in the area of Penguins -400, giving us some value on the first leg in our parlay (lined at -330 or so).

To start, the Canadiens are in the worst rest and travel situation possible. They played last night, losing 8-4 to the Avalanche, and will now travel to Pittsburgh for tonight's game. Montreal also played three days ago — this is the third game in four days for the team, and they haven't had two straight days of rest since February.

Montreal's injury list is truly jaw-dropping. The list of players who are currently out — many of whom will not return this season – includes Brendan Gallagher, Cole Caufield, Sean Monahan, Kirby Dach, Joel Armia, and Christian Dvorak, among others. Pittsburgh, by contrast, is almost fully healthy.

The Penguins have won seven of their last nine games — the team has stepped up as the playoffs have grown closer. Their last game, a 3-2 win against the Rangers, was an impressive showing, with the Penguins winning the expected goals battle (3.67-2.73) with ease.

With playoff seeding hanging in the balance with every ensuing game, I see the Penguins coming out firing on all cylinders. They have every edge imaginable in this spot — their even-strength play has been significantly better, their special teams' play has been better, they are the home team, they have the rest advantage, and they are healthier. This is a game between two teams of wildly different classes, and the line on the game does not fully reflect that.

Leg Two: Devils ML

This matchup, between the Devils and the Lightning, represents a game far closer to a coin toss than the one described above. However, I think the Devils should be favored more than they currently are.

Firstly, the Devils and Jack Hughes, and Dougie Hamilton are in excellent form. They have won seven of their last nine games — including three straight — and have pulled into a tie for the Metropolitan division lead with the Hurricanes. More importantly, per MoneyPuck, New Jersey has generated more expected goals at even strength than their opponents for 13 straight games, a remarkable feat. This fact demonstrates the extent to which the Devils are outplaying their opponents on a nightly basis — they are one of the hottest teams in the NHL.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is in poor form, both in terms of actual results and underlying figures. They have lost seven of their last nine games, with the two wins coming against the lowly Blackhawks and Flyers. Their expected goals results have started to turn a corner; however, with the game that accounts for the majority of this shift coming against the Blackhawks, I think that we need to take the shift with a grain of salt.

The Lightning do have an edge in terms of goaltending, albeit less so than one might expect. Andrei Vasilevskiy is having a quality campaign, but his save percentage has dipped to .914 (the 10th-best mark amongst starters). On the other side, Vitek Vanecek is having a good season in his own right for the Devils — he has a record of 28-7-3, a save percentage of .910, and 7.89 goals saved above expected (per EvolvingHockey).

Tampa is a good team, and I think they will be a threat when the playoffs roll around. However, at the moment, New Jersey is simply a much better unit. Since acquiring Timo Meier at the trade deadline, they have been on a tear, and they haven't shown signs of slowing down. Until they do, I will continue to bet on them if the prices remain low, just as the price is here.

NHL Parlay for Thursday (+131) Bet $100 to collect $231. PointsBet has the best odds, click here

  • Leg 1: Pittsburgh ML
  • Leg 2: New Jersey ML

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Article Author

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Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.

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