Formula 1 Odds & Betting: Max Verstappen Must Assert Dominance Before it’s Too Late

Intorducing Eric Kelly as OddsChecker's latest addition to the team. Eric will be making weekly Formula 1 picks, starting with this week's Belgian Grand Prix.
Eric Kelly
Fri, August 27, 6:01 AM EDT

Formula 1 Odds & Betting: Max Verstappen Must Assert Dominance Before it’s Too Late

The stage is set over the next two weekends. Max Verstappen essentially has two home races in a row at Spa in Belgium and Zandvoort in his native Netherlands. He must capitalize here in order to keep the pace with the 7-time world champion Lewis Hamilton.

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Belgian Grand Prix Race Preview

A four week break from the thrills and spills of an F1 race is just about as much as we can take. It's great to get back into the action ahead of this weekend’s iconic Spa-Francorchamps. It's one of the Formula1’s crown jewels on the calendar each year and it rarely disappoints as a spectacle either, with the famous Eau-Rouge and Radillion bends, as well as a long straight where overtaking’s happen a lot. It also has a habit of raining a lot at Grand Prix’s as it sits in the middle of the Ardennes forest. For almost 20 years straight the Belgian GP was under wet conditions.

Prior to the summer break, Max Verstappen suffered a lot. He held a 32-point lead over Hamilton in the championship standings. Unfortunately for Verstappen, he was wiped out of the next two races, the culprits? Both Mercedes drivers.

Hamilton threw Verstappen into the kitty litter in Silverstone, and Bottas caused a big crash in Hungary where Verstappen ended up suffering severely and only finished in 9th place. There is certainly sour grapes here now between Red Bull and Mercedes. The fact it was both Mercedes who caused those incidents has been the issue. Hamilton now leads Verstappen by 7 points heading into the second part of the Foruma1 season. Can Red Bull bounce back this week or is it too late and has Hamilton started to ride off into the sunset for a 5th time in a row?

Verstappen vs. Hamilton: Where is The Value?

Both Hamilton and Verstappen are coming in at +110 to pick up the win here at the Belgian GP. Obviously, these odds will shift once qualifying is complete, whichever one of these two qualifies on pole is going to lose 30/40 cent to their value and we should see them start the race at around the -120 mark.

Both drivers are the same odds to qualify on pole position, right now its very difficult to choose who the better/faster driver will be around this circuit, as both drivers and  cars seem to be pretty even, or at least levelling themselves out. This track has almost been exclusively a Mercedes pole position track as only once of the previous eight years have we not seen a silver arrow on the front of the grid.

Historically, Spa has not been very kind to the Red Bulls in the hybrid era and Verstappen has never finished higher than 3rd here in Belgium. But this could be his best chance yet to claim victory as Mercedes are not quite at the peak of their power like years gone by. It could come down to the correct set-up or the potential rain we expected to have.

The value here in our opinion would have to be with the tried and trusted Hamilton. Yes, almost every F1 fan (including myself) wants to see Verstappen win, and he might well do just that. But for us, giving +110 with Hamilton seems like the value play right now. Also he also seems to be incredibly lucky, rarely crashing out of a race when being involved in an incident. Who remembers Italy this year where he was saved thanks to his teammate causing a red flag? Or both times he hit Alex Albon, or even Verstappen recently at Silverstone?

Belgian GP Race Pick: Lewis Hamilton Win @ +110

Belgian GP odds

Alpha Tauris Can Deliver at Spa

Did you know the Alpha Tauris are the only team to this season to score points in every single race so far? And their new rookie driver, Tsunoda, seems to be starting to find his feet as he has finished inside the top 10 in three of his last four race starts. Tsunoda also won the feature race here last season in F2. It's encouraging signs for the young Japanese driver and we are hopeful of a big weekend from him.

We all know his teammate, the still young Pierre Gasly, who has been nothing but sensational since his relegation from the Red Bull team down to Alpha Tauri, even picking up a race win at Monza last season at odds of +2000. Gasly has finished inside the top 10 in eight out of eleven races thus far this season. We feel like odds of +100 is fair value on the drivers to both end up inside the points, they should be able to capitalize at Spa this weekend.

Belgian GP Race Pick: Both Alpha Tauris Top 10 Finish @ +100

Formula 1 Odds: Belgian Grand Prix Picks

Lewis Hamilton Win @ +110

Both Alpha Tauris Top 10 Finish @ +100

For complete Belgian Grand Prix odds, click here

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