Italian Grand Prix Odds and Betting: Mercedes Take Control in Italy Ahead of The Sprint Race

Italian Grand Prix betting and predictions from handicapper Eric Kelly for this weekend's Formula 1 race
Eric Kelly
Fri, September 10, 1:26 PM EDT

Formula 1 Odds and Betting: Mercedes Take Control in Italy Ahead of The Sprint Race 

Mercedes was the team who many predicted to take pole this weekend, but it isn’t Lewis Hamilton on Pole ahead of the sprint race on Saturday, his teammate Valtteri Bottas has claimed that spot.

Italian Grand Prix Race Preview

Are we surprised to see Bottas qualifying on pole position? Not really. He had a point to prove after being outed from the team ahead of next season. Although, he will start Sunday's race towards the back of the grid following engine penalties which he had to take. He will have a major part to play during the sprint race on Saturday as he will look to hopefully help Hamilton get one over on Max Verstappen and Red Bull in what is set to be a VERY exciting Sprint race. The previous Sprint race this season at Silverstone saw only 2 of 20 drivers finish in the same position as they qualified, and with many overtaking opportunities at Monza, we expect similar results.

Elsewhere, both McLaren’s looked very impressive, finishing 4th and 5th in qualifying, and there could be a surprise on our hands tomorrow or Sunday. Don’t be surprised to see a shock result here at Monza (the fastest track on the F1 calendar). Pierre Gasly won this race last season at odds of +2000 and this weekend he qualified in 6th, ahead of the home team Ferrari, whose drivers start the Sprint race 7th and 8th.

It’s exciting for Formula1 fans to see the championship being so close as Verstappen leads Hamilton by just three points going into this race. It’s been said Mercedes will have the advantage here at Monza and in the next race at Sochi, where Mercedes have won every race since they began racing there back in 2013. We are staying away from the two big guns this weekend, as neither represents value post-qualifying.

Lando Norris Still Plus Money To Take Podium

It’s hard to argue that Norris hasn’t been a sensation since coming into Formula 1. The British driver has really set the tone at McLaren over the past two and a half years. He is improving race on race and this season alone has finished inside the top five on 9 of 13 occasions, as well as three podiums.

As of right now, we can get +120 on Norris to take a podium, and with Bottas set to start at the back of the grid and Sergio Perez struggling as of late in his Red Bull, we should see Norris slot into the third position come the final lap of Sunday's race. Either way, a plus-money bet here represents value and that’s what we need in the long run. I would also advise sports betters to stick some “beer money” on Norris to win outright at +1000, although the value is almost certainly gone as he was +3400 before qualifying. Still, it’s a good fun bet to make if looking for an outright winner to cheer on beside the two favorites.

Italian GP Race Pick: Lando Norris Podium @ +120

Aston Martin Should Have More in The Tank

The Mercedes-powered Aston Martin’s both qualified in 11th and 12th respectively. They both looked fast in Free Practice 1 as they had the 4th and 6th fastest times. But things seemed to go array for them once Q2 started. With that said, they both finished inside the top ten here last season, claiming a 4th and 10th place finish, and with the possibility of a few DNF’s this weekend we like their chances of both finishing inside the top 10 at +200.

As we know, they are just one and two positions off the top ten, and with Antonio Giovinazzi sitting in 10th both will feel they can get the jump on him during the Sprint race. If anything, the sprint race should help the Aston Martins this weekend as opposed to hindering them. However, I will say this, I have been betting both Aston Martins to be classified NO for the past two races and it hasn’t clicked. This weekend could be the one and with both to be classified NO also coming in at odds of +200. I would also get on that.

Essentially what I am saying here is I believe they will either both finish inside the top 10 or else one or both won’t see the finish line. At +200 for both to see a top ten finish and both to be classified NO, we can essentially hedge our bets. It’s a small gamble as both finishing the race but not inside the top ten would see a loss, it’s a risk I am willing to take at +200. He who dares wins.

Italian GP Race Pick: Aston Martin Both Top 10 Finish +200

Italian GP Race Pick: Aston Martin Both To Be Classified NO +200

Formula 1 Odds: Italian Grand Prix Picks

Italian GP Race Pick: Lando Norris Podium @ +120
Italian GP Race Pick: Aston Martin Both Top 10 Finish @ +200
Italian GP Race Pick: Aston Martin Both To Be Classified NO @ +200

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