NASCAR Cup Series at Bristol Dirt Predictions and Best Bets: Can Austin Dillion Get The Job Done?
NASCAR Cup Series at Bristol Dirt Predictions and Best Bets: Can Austin Dillion Get The Job Done?
Welcome back, gang! We're heading to Bristol Motor Speedway. It's a high-banked 0.533-mile oval, but with a twist. They covered this thing in dirt and we're going to race on it.
When I think of Bristol Motor Speedway as a dirt surface, I immediately think of Joe Dirt. Maybe it's because mullets are making a comeback, especially in Nascar. But it's probably because "Dirt" is his last name, which makes way more sense. I'm not sure if you've heard, but this past Monday was the 21st anniversary of the theatrical release of Joe Dirt. That feels like something we should celebrate.
Last year was the first installment of Bristol Dirt, and it was a bit of a mixed bag. The racing was decent, but visibility became a problem. Because the drivers could not see where they were going, that led to a ton of cautions...go figure. The track also became one-groove after just a handful of laps when the moisture was exhausted. Thankfully, this season we're going to race at night. That should help with all of those things. There also won't be any live pit stops during either of the events this weekend, so pit-row data is useless. Now that we know what we know, let's make some wagers.
“Now, this ain’t no flapjack, so I’m gonna be real careful..." ~ Joe Dirt
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Risk 1.05u to win 1.0u: Chase Elliott to finish better than Joey Logano (-105) (Bet $105 to win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
Good news, bad news here. The last time Joey Logano put on the helmet inside of a NASCAR truck, he won. The good news is, that was in 2015. Ancient racing history.
Logano did win the inaugural Cup Series event here last year, while Elliott finished ninth. I think this helps our case, as bookmakers have probably cooked some bias into this number since that is the only data point that they can use for reference. However, Elliott has been running some modified and late model events on dirt throughout the year. We like Elliott to improve on last year's Cup effort in a big way.
We also think there is a bit of an equipment disparity in this matchup. The No. 7 Spire Motorsport truck is essentially a Hendrick Motorsport wagon in disguise. We saw it compete for a win at COTA with Alex Bowman, and win last weekend in Martinsville with William Byron. This is a top-tier truck with a backmarker team name tied to it. Joey Logano will be driving for David Gilliland Racing. We expect him to have a nice run, but the equipment edge will be firmly in the Elliott garage.
"Does this look like a piece of crap to you? Like them spinnin' tires do you?" ~ Joe Dirt
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Risk 1.25u to win 1.0u - Austin Dillon to finish better than Buddy Kofoid (-125) (Bet $125 to win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
The answer is yes. Austin Dillon is going to be driving something that resembles a piece of crap on Saturday night...and we're betting on it! Dillon is a Cup Series regular, and he has some history as a dirt racer. Last year, he won a heat race and two feature events on this very track in the late-model division of the Bristol Dirt Nationals. He also won the inaugural Truck Series event on dirt at Eldora Raceway.
Herein lies the problem. He's going to be piloting the No. 20 truck owned by Young's Motorsports. There is some raw speed in this thing, as Sheldon Creed put it on the pole a few weeks ago, but durability may be an issue. We're hoping that they have a few McGuyvor-type mechanics on the payroll and that the bubblegum and duct tape will hold long enough for this wager to cash.
We're catching a matchup at a decent price against young Buddy Kofoid, who is making his Truck Series debut. A quick Google search showed me that he runs some sprint car and late model races, and likes to play video games. That should be enough back-story to confidently make this wager. We had a ton of luck last year fading the dirt track "ringers" and this is a spot just like that. If we felt more confidently in Dillon's truck, this would be a "take out a third and fourth mortgage" type of bet, but we'll settle for a one-unit play here.
“Things are gonna happen for me, I’m Joe Dirt.” ~ Joe Dirt
Risk 0.25u to win 4.25u - Austin Dillon outright winner (+1800) (Bet $100 to win $1800)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
If you're feeling bold, this is the wager for you. We like Dillon a lot, and this is a way to wager a little to win a lot. We like Dillon's dirt pedigree, and we also avoid having a guy like Kyle Larson in the field. At 18/1, it's worth a sprinkle.