Production Alliance Group 300 Prediction: This Bet is the Berries
Production Alliance Group 300 Prediction: This Bet is the Berries
*Editor's Note: Introducing Phil Bobbitt, or @speedwaysteve2 on Twitter, as you may know him. Phil joins OddsChecker as our NASCAR handicapper and will be bringing us picks throughout the season!*
Josh Berry is an absolute wheelman. He drove a little bit of everything last year across all three NASCAR series. He drove for well-funded teams, bad teams, and everyone in between. If someone needed a driver, they called Josh Berry. Chances are, he may have even driven the local city bus to take your grandmother to the grocery store. The guy loves to drive. Because of some outstanding results last season, Berry locked himself into a full-time gig for Jr. Motorsports, one of the premier teams in the Xfinity Series.
We head to Fontana, California for the Production Alliance Group 300. This is a 2.0 mile "D" shaped oval with an abrasive surface. The importance of maintaining and controlling tire-wear will be paramount.
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1.00 unit - Josh Berry to finish ahead of Justin Allgaier @ +100 (Bet $100 to win $100)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing
Berry and Allgaier are teammates again this year, which means there will not be an edge in equipment to exploit. The casual Nascar gambler would look at Allgaier's 373 career Xfinity starts, 16 wins, 220 top-ten finishes, and side with the favorite in this matchup. The brain trust at speedwaysteve2 are taking the journeyman with the cool last name. A quick peek at the stats while on comparable tracks in equal equipment.
Darlington (September) 2021
- Berry - 2nd, 8 Laps Led
- Allgaier - 6th, 19 Laps Led
Homestead 2021
- Berry - 10th
- Allgaier - 38th
Michigan 2021
- Berry - 4th, 24 Laps Led
- Allgaier - 6th, 9 Laps Led
Las Vegas 2021
- Berry - 7th and 1st, 38 Laps Led
- Allgaier - 14th and 2nd, 94 Laps Led
Although Algaier has shown some speed and registered solid finishes, Berry out-paced him at every stop. Let's take this thing up another notch. This track produces exciting restarts, with the competitors sometimes going five-wide to jockey for position. After the field sorts out, the laps tend to click off quickly without many incidents. Why is that important? Easy. That type of situation lends itself to green flag pit stops. The season is young and there is very little data. However, Josh Berry's squad posted three (!) of the top-ten fastest pit stops last week at Daytona. At a circuit where track position could be the difference between cashing a ticket and cursing our name forever, we will take Berry and the hot crew.
The books have this thing priced near a coin-flip, but the edge belongs to Berry. We also recommend James Bond-ing Berry for Saturday (thanks, Slop!)