NASCAR Cup Series Preview and Best Bets: Toyota Owners 400
NASCAR Cup Series Preview and Best Bets: Toyota Owners 400
We talked about the three-quarter mile Richmond International Raceway a bit in our Xfinity article. There should be a ton of action, and we're looking forward to dunking on the bookmakers Sunday after the Final Four games on Saturday. Put this napkin into your collar, we're serving up the meat and potatoes.
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NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 Best Bets
Risk: 1.15u to win 1.0u - Chase Elliott to finish better than Kyle Larson (-115) (Bet $115 to Win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
We're coming out swinging. Fading the defending Cup Series champion is no small task. You have to pick and choose your spots. Bob and weave, like a Harlem Globetrotter.
This is not indicative of what we think of Kyle Larson overall, but it is how we feel right now. Larson is an elite driver, no matter how you slice it. But the facts are the facts. He's been struggling recently, and Richmond isn't exactly a track that he has a dominating historical past. He won back in 2017, but he has not registered a top-5 in the six races since. In the spring race at Richmond, Larson finished 18th, notched only 10 fastest laps, and had an average running position of 20.6. The fall race was an improvement, finishing sixth with 33 fastest laps, and an average running position of 8.2.
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Chase Elliott is going to cash a ticket for us this weekend. Spring 2021 at Richmond saw Elliott bring home his #9 in 12th place. He didn't register a single fastest lap, but hung around the top ten all day, with an average 12.4 running position. Elliott finished fourth in the fall, but this time had 30 fastest laps, led for 58, and had a 6.5 average running position.
A telling statistic that we cannot ignore, is that Elliott has four top-5 finishes since Kyle Larson last had one. Not to mention in the last three races, Larson has finished 34th, 30th, and 29th. We think Larson will eventually snap out of this funk, but it will not be Sunday afternoon. Look for Elliott to win this match-up and cash a ticket!
Risk 1.2u to win 1.0u - Ross Chastain to finish better than Tyler Reddick (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)
*Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing*
This is tough. If you follow @speedwaysteve2 on Twitter, you know we're Ross Chastain fans. Our guy finally got into Victory Lane after stringing together finishes of third, second, and second. This Trackhouse team is absolutely dynamite right now, and you'd be insane to fade them.
Is there recency bias cooked into this line? Probably. The last time we saw Ross, he was smashing watermelons on television. But Tyler Reddick is no slouch. He is the consensus favorite to be the next first-time winner in the Cup Series.
The races last year at Richmond aren't a perfect comparison for these guys, but we can scrape a few notes from them. Chastain's first short track start in 2021 at Richmond was his first in a well-funded ride. He finished 15th while sneaking in a couple of fastest laps. Upon returning in Spring, Chastain finished 7th with 12 fastest laps. His average position improved from 15.8 to 7.1.
Reddick finished 20th in spring 2021 with only one fastest lap. His average running position was 20.8. Fall didn't treat Reddick much better, as he only improved to a 15th place finish with 5 fastest laps and a 14.8 average position.
The Richmond 2021 review proves a clear Chastain advantage. Phoenix is the only comparable data point we have this year with the new Gen-7 vehicle. Both of these guys were impressive, as Chastain finished 2nd and Reddick 3rd. With all of Reddick's fellow young guns getting to victory lane, we think Reddick may press the issue and make a mistake. Chastain is the most in-form driver in the Cup Series right now. It makes sense to take the hot hand while eating a cold watermelon.
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