NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega Ag-Pro 300 Best Bets: Where Will Brandon Brown Finish?
NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega Ag-Pro 300 Best Bets: Where Will Brandon Brown Finish?
Two weeks ago at Martinsville was the last time we saw these Xfinity boneheads. What a disaster that was. We lost all three of our props in the waning laps while in cash positions. My heart was broken for our readers, but we have no choice except to look forward. We're excited, while also terrified, that Talledega is the next destination.
Talledega is the longest course we'll see all year, measuring 2.66 miles compared to Daytona at 2.5 miles. The big difference between the two tracks is the overall width. Talledega offers a much wider surface, adding to the chaos...I mean, excitement. We're in for 2 hours of hold your breath, pack-racing action. Anything can happen including spine-shivering wrecks. Entire gambling cards can be wiped out by one driver mistake.
In superspeedway racing, it's important to not go crazy with action. A few well-placed sprinkles and less volume is what is needed for these types of weekends. It's also important to talk about, and be ready for, impending disaster.
Edward Aloysius Murphy Jr. was an aerospace engineer who worked on safety systems. But he most famously coined the phrase "Anything that can go wrong, will." The world knows it as Murphy's Law. Luckily for us, this guy must have also been either an amateur poet or an aspiring lawmaker because he's got quite a few "laws" and they all apply this weekend.
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Risk: 1.15u to win 1.0u - Brandon Brown to finish better than Chandler Smith (-115) (Bet $115 to win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
Murphy's 11th Law: It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious.
This one feels foolproof. Brandon Brown won this race the last time we were here. He belongs to a one-driver stable, and even though he doesn't have teammates, he is known to be a strong performer on superspeedways. Since 2019, he's finished no worse than 15th in 5 trips to Talledega. He's led 13 laps, including 8 last year. 7 out of the last 11 superspeedway races have seen Brown finish inside the top-10.
Chandler Smith is a @speedwaysteve2 favorite in the Truck Series. However, this is the first time he has ever sat inside of an Xfinity Car. We look to his truck series statistics at superspeedways for guidance, and he's not exactly an ace. In 4 combined trips to Daytona and Talledega, he's finished inside the top-10 just twice. This matchup is just to good to ignore...We'll take last year's Talledega champion over the new kid on the block.
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Risk: 1.05u to win 1u - Austin Hill to finish better than Justin Allgaier (-105) (Bet $105 to win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
Murphy's 6th Law: If you perceive that there are four possible ways in which a procedure can go wrong and circumvent these, then a fifth way, unprepared for, will promptly develop.
If that doesn't describe Justin Allgaier's year, I don't know what does. Allgaier's average finish so far this year is 17.3, his worst average finish since his rookie campaign in 2008. In three out of the last four weeks, Allgaier has finished worse than 29th. It seems like Allgaier makes mistakes week in and week out. Speaking of mistakes, in the last five trips to Talledega specifically, Allgaier has finished 3rd, 29th, 29th, 28th, 28th. I've learned not to try and catch a falling knife, and Allgaier needs to string together a few good showings to get us to back him.
Austin Hill kicked off his rookie campaign in the Xfinity Series with a win at Daytona. That seems relevant. This guy has literally won 100% of his Xfinity Series starts at superspeedways. He also won at Daytona and led laps the last four years at Talledega, all in the Truck Series. There's a lot to like here with this young driver, and he's shown promise this year.
Murphy's 4th Law: If there is a possibility of several things going wrong, the one that will cause the most damage will be the one to go wrong.
We deserve something good to happen here, and these superspeedway races are always a lot more fun with a longshot win wager. I would sprinkle a partial unit amongst these drivers:
0.4u to win 3.2u - Noah Gragson +800 (Bet $100 to win $800)
0.1u to win 4.8u - Brandon Brown +4800 (Bet $100 to win $4800)
0.1u to win 4.8u - Ryan Sieg +4800 (Bet $100 to win $4800)
We've literally written this entire article quoting Murphy's Law. So you need to ask yourself, what's the worst that could happen?!