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Phil Bobbitt is back with another NASCAR best bet. This time he's breaking down the NASCAR Xfinity Series at Dover A-Game 200 race. Where will Josh Berry finish?

NASCAR Xfinity Series at Dover A-Game 200 Best Bets: Where Will Josh Berry Finish?

We all have those movies that you just can't flip passed when you're channel surfing. In between hitting @sloprules YOLO parlays, I was taking a breather from sports and stumbled upon the 2006 cinematic masterpiece, Grandma's Boy.

"What does high score mean? New high score, is that bad? What does that mean? Did I break it?" ~ Jeff

We had a blast last weekend during the Talledega race because winning is fun. We nailed outright winners in both races...Noah Gragson (+800) on Saturday and Ross Chastain (+3300) on Sunday. Results like that sure make Monday's not so bad. Although we may not hit both outright winners in the same weekend again for quite some time, I also won't pinky-swear that we won't.

This week we head to my hometown circuit in Dover, Delaware. It's a one-mile, high-banked short(ish) track. Maybe it's considered an intermediate, I have no idea. There really aren't any comparable tracks for data analysis purposes, so we are forced to use what little we have, and a whole lot of...well, we really only just have the data.

First up to tackle the Monster Mile is the Xfinity Series on Saturday afternoon (1:30pm EST). Betting on this series is like herding chickens, but we're professionals. Let's get it.

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Risk 1.1u to win 1.0u - Josh Berry to finish better than AJ Allmendinger (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

“Dude, your bed’s a car.” — Alex

If there's one guy in this series who may actually sleep in a racecar bed, it's Josh Berry. We've talked a little about Berry's ability a few times this year. He's a superior talent, and it wouldn't surprise us to see him in the Cup Series soon. Last year at Dover, Berry finished runner-up while turning 42 fastest laps, and leading 48. He spent literally 100% of the race inside the top-15 and finished with a nearly perfect driver rating of 130.4.

AJ Allmendinger finished fourth last year, but only turned five fast laps while leading none. The "Dinger" runs on average half as many fast laps as Berry in their most recent six starts at Dover. Berry also averages 10 more green flag positional passes. He was impressive during practice, turning the fastest lap of the session, and qualified fourth. Allmendinger was ninth fastest overall in practice and qualified eighth.

This looks easy, and we'll take the bait. Take Berry over Dinger.

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Risk 1.1u to win 1.0u - Austin Hill to finish better than Daniel Hemric (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

“I’ll run over your attitude. It sucks.” — Jeff

Ohhh baby, the all-out Kaulig fade. We're not on a superspeedway anymore, and Kaulig won't be the team to beat come Saturday afternoon. Daniel Hemric finished ninth last year in this event, and now he's driving a bit of a downgrade in equipment. He only managed four fast laps and led once for a single lap. Austin Hill has only run here one time in his career and still matched Hemric's fastest lap effort. During an interview this week he also noted that this is one of his favorite tracks to race on.

Here's some food for thought. Xfinity rookie Austin Hill is three spots ahead of Daniel Hemric in the season-long points standings. Hill is still learning on the job but has looked great at times, even winning at Daytona and finishing runner-up at Atlanta and COTA. Hemric is a savvy veteran and the defending series champion, but he is not nearly on the same level as last year.

Outright win props!

"Anybody can get past a dog. But NOBODY (messes) with a lion." ~ Dante

0.5u John Hunter Nemechek +750 (Bet $100 to win $750)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

0.25u Austin Hill +2000 (Bet $100 to win $2000)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

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Article Author


Phil and Steve are lifelong buddies from the Philadelphia area. They specialize in all things motorsports and turned in a 131.3 unit profit in 2021.


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