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AdventHealth 400 predictions and picks from racing handicapper Phil Bobbitt. On Sunday, NASCAR heads down to Kansas Speedway for the AdventHealth 400. Who will win? How should you bet it? Find out here

AdventHealth 400 Predictions: Expect a Big Showing From Kevin Harvick on Sunday

We've already talked about my vacation to Las Vegas, and Kansas Motor Speedway's track layout. So let's dig into something truly important, Kansas City BBQ. Apparently, it's pretty famous for being delicious. I'm a big fan of good food, and I got really hungry while researching the best BBQ in town. So naturally, I went to my local diner.

Here's the thing about diners...they're fantastic. You can eat whatever you want, whenever you want. Breakfast at midnight? Absolutely. Seafood whenever? Sure thing, although probably not the right move. There was a fella that lived in my college dorm that once dumped his college girlfriend because she didn't like diners. The guy was a legend, but most importantly, he was right.

Guy Fieri is also a legend when it comes to diners. It's only fitting we apply some of his wisdom this weekend as Nascar heads to Flavortown, USA. He's got a timeless hairstyle, an endless collection of sporty sunglasses, and has been inducted into the Barbeque Hall of Fame.

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AdventHealth 400 Picks

1.2u to win 1.0u - Kevin Harvick to finish inside the Top Ten @ -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)

"Food is not just eating energy. It's an experience." ~ Guy FIeri

We're leaning on the mountain of experience Kevin Harvick has in this one. In his last six trips to Kansas Motor Speedway, Harvick has finished 3,2,2,4,9,13. He's turned an average of 15.2 fast laps during the last six and led a total of 198. He has historically boogeyed around this joint.

It's not all sunshine and rainbows for Harvick though. This year he's experienced some growing pains while piloting the new generation cup series car. He's 12th in average running position but has the 4th best average finishing position. That tells us a couple of important things. He generally keeps his car out of harm's way and improves throughout. He's learning on the job, and he's doing good enough work that he cashes this ticket for us on Sunday.

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1.0u to win 1.1u - Aric Almirola to finish better than Erik Jones @ +110 (Bet $100 to win $110)

"I'm a 'what you see is what you get' kind of guy. I don't have any time to be showing anybody any bag of tricks." ~ Guy Fieri

We have time to show you something in OUR bag of tricks.

This head-to-head is a huge mismatch, you just may not know it yet. There is nothing sexy about it until you peel the onion back. Erik Jones leads our horse in a couple of categories. He's led an average of 3.6 laps per race so far in 2022 and turned 5.2 average fast laps. Almirola has not been nearly as good in those categories, leading only 0.3 laps and averaging 3.0 fast ones.

Here's the awesome part. Of the full-time drivers in the Cup Series, Erik Jones is the worst closer. How that is determined is, you calculate the average running position during the last 10% of the race, and subtract the driver's finishing position. Jones' closer rate is -5.5, which looks as bad as it is. On the other hand, Almirola is the Series's best closer with +2.2. That is nearly 8 positions of differential in a season where equipment disparity is nearly non-existent, and everything is contested. Huge edge to Almirola.

As always, pit road efficiency is hugely weighted in our handicap. Erik Jones has the 19th best pit road ranking, while Almirola is a very respectable 10th. Almirola made a big move up the list last weekend, as his team threw down the third and fourth fastest 4 tire pit stops of the race. We love the improvement, and we love Almirola to get this plus money ticket home.

AdventHealth 400 Bonus Outrights

"There are races and then there are races. And without a doubt, the Indy 500 is the race that I've always wanted to attend. And now, to be driving the Corvette Pace Car... this is going to be unbelievable." - Guy Fieri

Guy Fieri must not be an @speedwaysteve2 reader, yet. Maybe this article will change his mind. Or maybe, cashing one of these hot tamales will be just what the doctor ordered. If one of our racers is leading with a few laps to go, I would bet ol' Guy might point that red hot rod in Kansas' direction the next time they're in town.

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Article Author


Phil and Steve are lifelong buddies from the Philadelphia area. They specialize in all things motorsports and turned in a 131.3 unit profit in 2021.


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