May 20, 5:29pm | 7 mins read

NASCAR Xfinity Series at Texas Best Bets: How Will Josh Berry Fair On Race Day?

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NASCAR heads to the 1.5-mile tri-oval of Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. The Xfinity Series heads to Texas on Saturday afternoon. Phil Bobbit shares his best bets.

ANALYSIS

NASCAR Xfinity Series at Texas Best Bets: How Will Josh Berry Fair On Race Day?

NASCAR has a busy weekend! The Camping World Truck Series was on Friday night and now the Xfinity Series is Saturday afternoon. We've got two races this weekend to turn a profit, so let's not waste any time, and let's skip to the good part.

NASCAR heads to the 1.5-mile tri-oval of Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. The Xfinity Series starts on Saturday afternoon.

It's no secret that some things are just better when paired up with something else. Peanut butter and jelly...that's a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. Batman and Robin, Saturday and Sunday, and Beavis and Butthead all belong on Mount Rushmore. Knocking on the door for entry into this elite club is @speedwaysteve2 and winning at Texas.

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NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions

Sheldon Creed to finish better than Jeffrey Earnhardt (-130) (Bet $130 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

This one is a real head-scratcher. The last time we saw Jeffrey Earnhardt, he was finishing second at Talledega in a No. 3 car that looked a lot like Grandpop Earnhardt's, and Larry Mac was crew chiefing him. Unfortunately, he is back piloting the lesser No. 26 vehicle which usually runs mid-teens and rarely finishes.

Sheldon Creed, on the other hand, is in top-tier equipment and we think his ceiling is much higher than Earnhardt's. Although he has struggled at times this year, averaging an 18.3 finish, that should be enough to win this matchup.

Justin Allgaier to finish better than AJ Allmendinger (-130) (Bet $130 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

Let's ride the hot hand. Allgaier wheeled his rig to a win last time out at Darlington. Previously, his Jr. Motorsport teammate cashed the winning ticket for us at Dover. Taking a peek at our custom data set, we see that Allgaier's average finish at recent Kansas/Texas/Charlotte races is 6.8 compared to Allmendinger's 12.0. In fact, Allmendinger usually starts strong, with a 3.0 average start position, slowly working his way backward to 10.0 by the halfway mark. Allgaier is the polar opposite, starting in an average of 10.3, 7.8 by midway, before slotting into his average finish.