NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Toyota 200 Predictions: Can Stewart Friesen Finish in Top 5?
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Toyota 200 Predictions: Can Stewart Friesen Finish in Top 5?
We made the most of last weekend's jam-packed schedule, grinding out a nice profit over the three days. In the truck series, we missed on Kyle Busch to win but evened the slate with Ross Chastain cashing our top-5 wager. We're back at it with some best bets for the Toyota 200 at Gateway.
Gateway is a 1.25-mile uniquely shaped oval, with different degrees of banking at either end. For the last two years, Sheldon Creed has absolutely owned this joint. He's packed his bags and headed off to the Xfinity Series, so who will be slamming cold ones in Victory Lane this weekend?
We're going to be using track histories from Phoenix, Martinsville, and New Hampshire to come up with a clearer picture of how this will play out. Let's dive into my best bets, predictions, and the odds for NASCAR Toyota 200.
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Toyota 200 at Gateway Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: June 4, 2022
- Time: 1:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: FS1
Click Here for Toyota 200 Odds
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Toyota 200 Best Bets
Ben Rhodes to finish better than Chandler Smith (+100) (Bet $100 to win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
Ben Rhodes not only has a strong history at Gateway specifically but also at the comparable tracks. He has an average finish of 7.3 over the eight races in our dataset, with 8.1 laps led and 9.0 fast laps. His driver rating over that timeframe is 108.1.
Chandler Smith is just a smidge behind Rhodes in this comparison. He finished fourth in 2019, but 23rd and 28th the last two years. He has an average finish of 10.8 with 6.8 laps led and 9.8 fast laps.
Rhodes' recent performances over the past month have been less than stellar, notching only two top-10s since his win on the Bristol Dirt. However, Gateway is one of ThorSport's best tracks, and they should be prepared to match or improve on Rhodes' 2021 third-place finish.
Zane Smith to finish better than John Hunter Nemechek (-105) (Bet $105 to win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
The Zane Train is rolling this year. He's won a series-leading three times in 2022 and added two more top-5s. At Gateway he finished fifth, seventh, and 35th last year. His 2021 stat line is a bit of an outlier. He led 19 laps and was fourth in stage one before a rear gear equipment failure ended his day early.
John Hunter was a powerhouse last year...widely considered the best driver that had the best equipment. He was the odds-on favorite to win nearly every week and led the Series in wins with five. This year, however, he has seemingly taken a step back. While most drivers would be happy with a win and seven straight top-10s, the expectations are different for JHN.
Our algorithm loves Smith over JHN at this underdog price. Smith's 9.8 average finish in the dataset far outranks Nemechek's 16.8. Smith also dominates average laps led (38.7 vs 0.3) and fast laps (15.5 vs 2.8). I could not believe that such a huge disparity existed between these two guys, but it's buried in the data. We are not hesitating to gobble up the value here!
Stewart Friesen to finish inside the Top-5 (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
This is such a ridiculous misprice. Stewart Friesen has finished in the top-5 during the last three years (3,5,4). In the comparable track matrix, he has an average starting position of 10.1 and an average finish of 8.1. We can glean from this that he has good short track history but really shines at Gateway in particular.
In 2022, he has five Top-10 finishes in 10 races but has never finished worse than 16th. He's been one of the Series' most consistent drivers and even bagged a win two weeks ago at Texas. We look for him to continue his strong form of 2022 at a track where he is very comfortable.
Disclaimer: MGM flashed a +145 for this prop, so check there first. It was unavailable while writing this article, but they do tend to re-populate.
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