NASCAR Best Bets: Bubba Wallace, Erik Jones, Denny Hamlin, and the Quaker State 400
NASCAR Best Bets: Bubba Wallace, Erik Jones, Denny Hamlin, and the Quaker State 400
We thought it would be a good idea to start a column after qualifying sessions, to review what happened and where there may be some value for the big show.
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Quaker State 400 NASCAR Qualifying Review
The weather in Atlanta didn't co-operate today and after a lengthy delay, Cup Series Qualifying was canceled. The starting order is determined by a mathematical formula developed by NASCAR during the Covid days when qualifying was nixed altogether. Bob Pockrass posted the metric on Twitter, "....25% driver finish previous race, 25% owner finish previous race, 35% owner points, 15% fastest lap ranking from previous race."
A bad starting position isn't a death sentence for Sunday's race. In fact, it presents some serious value. Bubba Wallace (32nd) has been one of the best superspeedway racers on the circuit for the last few years. Brad Keselowski (31st) and Austin Dillon (26th) both saw movement against them as well. These were drivers that we had targeted as "play-on" candidates during the week. We're happy to grab up the extra dime of value in several of their head-to-head matchups.
Austin Cindric (fifth) will be starting in the third row because of a strong run on the road course last weekend. Beside him will be teammate Ryan Blaney (sixth), and we'll be looking for these two drivers to immediately link up in the draft and go to the front. Teammates Denny Hamlin (16th) and Christopher Bell (15th) will look to do the same thing. Hamlin is a superspeedway wizard and is normally very aggressive in these settings. He is a boom or bust candidate for Sunday.
Erik Jones (starting 25th) is a fantastic superspeedway racer. He is going off at 40/1 to win, which is definitely worth a sprinkle. His Top-10 at Draftkings is +160, and we are eager to get to the window for that ticket. For the March Atlanta date, Jones rode in the top-15 77.8% of the race, had an average running position of 11.0, and had the 10 fastest laps. His driver rating was ninth. As our bowling pal @sloprules would say, this is a bet that has a 0% chance of losing.
The forecast looks good in Atlanta for Sunday, so enjoy the rest of your weekend while cashing some motorsport tickets with us!
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