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NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Michigan International Speedway tomorrow afternoon for the New Holland 250. Is AJ Allmendinger good value? Phil Bobbitt answers.

NASCAR Predictions and Picks: Is AJ Allmendinger Good Value at New Holland 250?

“Chaos was the law of nature; Order was the dream of man.” ~ Henry Adams, The Education of Henry Adams.

The famous historian and grandson/great-grandson of the Adams Family of Presidents must have watched an Xfinity race or two in his day. We always hope for a boring, predictable race but that is never on the Saturday menu. But it's going to be on TV and we're race bettors. So let's hold our noses, and dive right in.

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NASCAR Xfinity Series New Holland 250 Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: August 6, 2022
  • Start Time: 3:30 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: USA

NASCAR Xfinity Series New Holland 250 Predictions

AJ Allmendinger is simply the best in the business on a NASCAR road course. He snapped off a +400 winner for us last Saturday, and it was never really in doubt. We're on a 2.0-mile oval this weekend, and the two tracks could not be more different. We're going to take our chances running it back with the "Dinger" again this weekend. It's so sneaky, that it should be illegal to collect the money after the tickets cash. But it's not illegal, and we can keep the cash.

NASCAR Xfinity Series New Holland 250 Picks

Oh yeah, real creative. Just bet the guy that won last week, right? Allmendinger has the fastest green flag speed in 2022 over the 20 races so far. It's not a stretch to say that he has not even had as good of a year as he did in 2021. Mr. North Carolina has remained consistent, and it seems like Kaulig has their flagship team back in title contention.

"The Dinger" also rates well in our comparable track algorithm. He is third in average running position (ARP) amongst the series regulars and is fourth in average laps led (14.6). Sam Mayer is seventh in ARP while tenth in average laps led (2.0). Allmendinger also does not have any DNFs (did not finish) this year while Mayer is near the top of the list with three. Our Saturday hero also ranks first in the series with 17 Top-10s overall compared to Mayer's 11. The point is, Allmendinger is a proven commodity that we can hang our hat on to keep the car out of trouble and find the finish. Mayer...well, the dude is a wild card.

Kaulig has always been very strong on the superspeedways. This is not a superspeedway, but man is this a fast course. Oh, shoot. You know what? It almost slipped my mind, Allmendinger dominated this race last year. He led 70 laps, which was 46 more than the next driver. How dare the sportsbooks give us 8/1 on an outright. I'm so appalled, I'm betting it.

NASCAR Xfinity Series New Holland 250 Pick

Justin Allgaier to finish inside the Top-3 (+115) (Bet $100 to win $115)

*Odds available at Sugarhouse and Barstool at time of publishing*

Allgaier ranks atop nearly every metric in our comparable track algorithm. I'd elaborate, but that's the @speedwaysteve2 secret sauce. What I can say is, that he's first in average finish (4.7), average fast laps (24.7), average laps led (45.8), and average running position (4.9). That's not even taking out the Cup Series guys who are moonlighting...it's including the entire dataset of drivers. Although he finished sixth last year, he did lead in the race and posted the second highest driver rating. We think this prop has insane value, and you need to jump on it now!

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Article Author


Phil and Steve are lifelong buddies from the Philadelphia area. They specialize in all things motorsports and turned in a 131.3 unit profit in 2021.


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